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Leeds logo
Premier League | Gameweek 29
Mar 13, 2022 at 2pm UK
Elland Road
Norwich logo

Leeds
2 - 1
Norwich

Rodrigo (14'), Gelhardt (90+4')
Ayling (26'), Harrison (71'), James (77')
FT(HT: 1-0)
McLean (90+1')
Gunn (15'), Aarons (77')

Preview: Leeds United vs. Norwich City - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Premier League clash between Leeds United and Norwich City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

An enormous Premier League contest involving two struggling teams will take place at Elland Road on Sunday afternoon, as Leeds United welcome Norwich City.

Leeds are currently 16th in the table, just two points above 18th-placed Burnley, while Norwich sit rock bottom of the division, five points from the safety of 17th position entering the final straight.


Match preview

Leeds United manager Jesse Marsch looks dejected on March 10, 2022© Reuters

Jesse Marsch would have been under no illusions as to the size of the task facing him when it comes to keeping Leeds in the Premier League this season, and the American has been unable to prevent the Whites from suffering two defeats from his two matches since replacing Marcelo Bielsa as head coach.

Indeed, Leeds lost 1-0 at Leicester City last weekend before suffering a 3-0 home defeat to Aston Villa on Thursday evening, which made it six straight losses in England's top flight.

The Whites are without a Premier League win since the middle of January, and their disappointing run of form has left them in 16th spot in the table, just two points above 18th-placed Burnley, who have two games in hand, while Everton just below them have three matches spare at this stage.

Leeds have not even scored a single goal in their last four Premier League games, which is particularly concerning considering the amount of goals that they are conceding; letting in 64 in England's top flight this term, which is the worst record in the division ahead of Norwich (61).

The Whites have the fourth-worst home record in the league this term, meanwhile, collecting just 13 points from 14 matches, suffering seven defeats in the process, but they recorded a 2-1 win over Norwich in the reverse match at Carrow Road earlier this season.

Norwich City's Mathias Normann, Kenny McLean and Teemu Pukki look dejected on March 5, 2022© Reuters

Norwich, meanwhile, will enter Sunday's match off the back of a 3-1 home defeat to Chelsea on Thursday evening, which left them bottom of the table on 17 points.

The Canaries have not been cut adrift, sitting five points behind 17th-placed Everton, although the Toffees have three games in hand, while Burnley in 18th have two games spare on the side at the bottom.

As a result, it is going to take a monumental effort from Norwich to avoid being relegated back to the Championship, and they will be looking to avoid a sixth straight league defeat this weekend, while the strugglers are bidding to secure all three points for the first time since January 21.

Dean Smith's side have the second-worst away record in the Premier League this season, picking up just eight points from 13 matches, but they recorded a 3-1 victory at Elland Road on their last visit in February 2019, securing all three points in the Championship affair.

Norwich have lost their last two league matches on their travels at Liverpool and Southampton, but they were 3-0 winners at fellow strugglers Watford on January 21 and will be aware that Leeds have serious problems of their own entering Sunday's contest at Elland Road.

Leeds United Premier League form:
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L

Norwich City Premier League form:
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L

Norwich City form (all competitions):
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L



Team News

Norwich City's Lukas Rupp celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on March 2, 2022© Reuters

Leeds will again be without the services of Liam Cooper, Kalvin Phillips, Leo Hjelde and Tyler Roberts, while Junior Firpo was stretched off with a knee injury in the defeat to Villa on Thursday.

Diego Llorente is likely to return to the starting side, with Stuart Dallas potentially moving across to left-back and Luke Ayling shuffling across to the right side of the defence.

Patrick Bamford could also come in for a start, having appeared off the bench against Villa, and Daniel James could be the player to miss out in attack, with Raphinha, Rodrigo and Jack Harrison set to keep their spots.

As for Norwich, Billy Gilmour is available again after being unable to face his parent club on Thursday, but Adam Idah and Andrew Omobamidele will again miss out through injury.

Head coach Smith could revert to a four-man defence at Elland Road, which would allow Milot Rashica to come into the attack alongside Teemu Pukki and Joshua Sargent.

There are unlikely to be many changes from the side that started against Chelsea, though, with Max Aarons and Brandon Williams set to feature at full-back, while Pierre Lees Melou and Christoph Zimmermann could potentially drop out to allow Gilmour and Rashica to start.

Leeds United possible starting lineup:
Meslier; Ayling, Llorente, Struijk, Dallas; Forshaw, Koch; Raphinha, Rodrigo, Harrison; Bamford

Norwich City possible starting lineup:
Krul; Aarons, Hanley, Kabak, Williams; Gilmour, Normann, McLean; Sargent, Pukki, Rashica


SM words green background

We say: Leeds United 1-1 Norwich City

Both sides desperately need to win this match, and it is a huge affair towards the bottom of the table. A point does not suit either team, but we are struggling to back either with any serious confidence, ultimately settling on a 1-1 at Elland Road on Sunday afternoon.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 2.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 51.02%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Norwich City had a probability of 23.65%.

The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.61%) and 2-1 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.02%), while for a Norwich City win it was 0-1 (7.67%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Leeds United would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Leeds vs Norwich

Leeds United
61.5%
Draw
20.5%
Norwich City
17.9%
117
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Patrick Bamford pictured for Leeds United on August 21, 2021
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
2Leeds UnitedLeeds45279980413990
3Ipswich TownIpswich442612688563290
4Southampton452591185622384
5Norwich CityNorwich4521101479631673
6West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom4520121367472072
7Hull City451913136859970
8Middlesbrough45199176861766
9Coventry CityCoventry4417131468551364
10Preston North EndPreston44189175661-563
11Bristol City451711175347662
12Cardiff CityCardiff45195215165-1462
13Swansea CitySwansea451512185964-557
14Watford451317156058256
15Sunderland45168215252056
16Millwall451511194455-1156
17Queens Park RangersQPR451411204557-1253
18Stoke CityStoke451411204560-1553
19Blackburn RoversBlackburn451311215874-1650
20Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds45148234268-2650
21Plymouth ArgylePlymouth451212215870-1248
22Birmingham CityBirmingham451211224965-1647
23Huddersfield TownHuddersfield45918184875-2745
RRotherham UnitedRotherham45412293287-5524


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