Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 84.99%. A draw had a probability of 10.1% and a win for Boavista had a probability of 4.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 3-0 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.05%) and 4-0 (8.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.73%), while for a Boavista win it was 1-2 (1.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
Result | ||
Porto | Draw | Boavista |
84.99% ( 0.06) | 10.1% ( -0.08) | 4.91% ( 0.02) |
Both teams to score 46.45% ( 0.68) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
72.82% ( 0.66) | 27.18% ( -0.67) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
52.28% ( 0.83) | 47.71% ( -0.83) |
Porto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
95.57% ( 0.13) | 4.43% ( -0.12) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
81.76% ( 0.39) | 18.24% ( -0.39) |
Boavista Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
48.61% ( 0.65) | 51.39% ( -0.65) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
14.4% ( 0.42) | 85.6% ( -0.43) |
Score Analysis |
Porto | Draw | Boavista |
3-0 @ 11.48% ( -0.16) 2-0 @ 11.05% ( -0.26) 4-0 @ 8.95% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 7.65% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 7.36% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 7.1% ( -0.23) 4-1 @ 5.96% ( 0.09) 5-0 @ 5.58% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 3.71% ( 0.09) 6-0 @ 2.9% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.55% ( 0.06) 4-2 @ 1.98% ( 0.07) 6-1 @ 1.93% ( 0.06) 7-0 @ 1.29% ( 0.03) 5-2 @ 1.24% ( 0.05) Other @ 4.25% Total : 84.98% | 1-1 @ 4.73% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 2.45% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 2.28% ( -0.09) Other @ 0.64% Total : 10.1% | 1-2 @ 1.57% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 1.52% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.82% Total : 4.91% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 89 | 29 | 60 | 81 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 63 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 46 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 33 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
13 | SC FarenseFarense | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 31 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 22 |
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