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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barnsley win with a probability of 36.76%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 35.65% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barnsley win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.93%) and 2-0 (6.65%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (10.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Barnsley would win this match.
Result | ||
Barnsley | Draw | Derby County |
36.76% ( -0.03) | 27.59% ( 0) | 35.65% ( 0.03) |
Both teams to score 49.05% ( -0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
43.3% ( -0.01) | 56.7% ( 0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.34% ( -0) | 77.66% ( 0) |
Barnsley Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.38% ( -0.02) | 29.62% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.34% ( -0.02) | 65.66% ( 0.03) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.69% ( 0.01) | 30.31% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.51% ( 0.02) | 66.49% ( -0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Barnsley | Draw | Derby County |
1-0 @ 10.92% 2-1 @ 7.93% ( -0) 2-0 @ 6.65% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 3.22% ( -0) 3-0 @ 2.7% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.92% ( -0) 4-1 @ 0.98% ( -0) Other @ 2.45% Total : 36.75% | 1-1 @ 13.04% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.98% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4.73% ( -0) Other @ 0.84% Total : 27.59% | 0-1 @ 10.71% 1-2 @ 7.78% ( 0) 0-2 @ 6.4% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 3.1% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.55% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.88% ( 0) 1-4 @ 0.92% ( 0) Other @ 2.3% Total : 35.64% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Portsmouth | 46 | 28 | 13 | 5 | 78 | 41 | 37 | 97 |
P | Derby CountyDerby | 46 | 28 | 8 | 10 | 78 | 37 | 41 | 92 |
3 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 46 | 25 | 12 | 9 | 86 | 51 | 35 | 87 |
4 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 46 | 25 | 9 | 12 | 89 | 61 | 28 | 84 |
5 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 46 | 22 | 11 | 13 | 79 | 56 | 23 | 77 |
6 | Barnsley | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 82 | 64 | 18 | 76 |
7 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 46 | 20 | 14 | 12 | 65 | 40 | 25 | 74 |
8 | Blackpool | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 65 | 48 | 17 | 73 |
9 | Stevenage | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 57 | 46 | 11 | 71 |
10 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 60 | 55 | 5 | 65 |
11 | Leyton Orient | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 53 | 55 | -2 | 65 |
12 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 46 | 20 | 10 | 16 | 63 | 56 | 7 | 62 |
13 | Exeter CityExeter | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 46 | 61 | -15 | 61 |
14 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 46 | 17 | 9 | 20 | 57 | 66 | -9 | 60 |
15 | Bristol Rovers | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 52 | 68 | -16 | 57 |
16 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 46 | 11 | 20 | 15 | 64 | 65 | -1 | 53 |
17 | Reading | 46 | 16 | 11 | 19 | 68 | 70 | -2 | 53 |
18 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 46 | 12 | 12 | 22 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 48 |
19 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 46 | 13 | 9 | 24 | 35 | 67 | -32 | 48 |
20 | Burton Albion | 46 | 12 | 10 | 24 | 39 | 67 | -28 | 46 |
R | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 46 | 12 | 8 | 26 | 41 | 65 | -24 | 44 |
R | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 46 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 49 | 72 | -23 | 43 |
R | Port Vale | 46 | 10 | 11 | 25 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 41 |
R | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 7 | 9 | 30 | 41 | 81 | -40 | 30 |
> League One Full Table |