MX23RW : Saturday, May 11 16:52:23| >> :60:397:397:
Finland national football team
Friendlies 1
Jan 12, 2023 at 4pm UK
Estádio da Nora
Estonia national football team

Finland
0 - 1
Estonia


Hostikka (9')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Miller (84')
Lipp (75')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's friendly clash between Finland and Estonia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
International Friendlies
Last Game: Sweden 2-0 Finland
Monday, January 9 at 6.45pm in International Friendlies
All competitions
International Friendlies
Last Game: Iceland 1-1 Estonia
Sunday, January 8 at 5pm in International Friendlies

We said: Finland 2-1 Estonia

Both nations are without the core of their squads, and with what is available, we see Finland as the stronger of the two and anticipate them picking up a narrow victory in Thursday's friendly. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Finland win with a probability of 43.04%. A win for Estonia had a probability of 29.17% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Finland win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.5%) and 2-0 (8.31%). The likeliest Estonia win was 0-1 (9.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood.

Result
FinlandDrawEstonia
43.04% (0.142 0.14) 27.79% (-0.346 -0.35) 29.17% (0.199 0.2)
Both teams to score 46.72% (1.042 1.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
41.2% (1.266 1.27)58.8% (-1.272 -1.27)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
20.68% (0.973 0.97)79.31% (-0.977 -0.98)
Finland Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.93% (0.67 0.67)27.07% (-0.676 -0.68)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.56% (0.871 0.87)62.44% (-0.876 -0.88)
Estonia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.06% (0.84399999999999 0.84)35.93% (-0.849 -0.85)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.29% (0.854 0.85)72.71% (-0.85900000000001 -0.86)
Score Analysis
    Finland 43.04%
    Estonia 29.17%
    Draw 27.78%
FinlandDrawEstonia
1-0 @ 12.71% (-0.37 -0.37)
2-1 @ 8.5% (0.112 0.11)
2-0 @ 8.31% (-0.083 -0.08)
3-1 @ 3.7% (0.117 0.12)
3-0 @ 3.62% (0.033 0.03)
3-2 @ 1.9% (0.102 0.1)
4-1 @ 1.21% (0.061 0.06)
4-0 @ 1.18% (0.033 0.03)
Other @ 1.91%
Total : 43.04%
1-1 @ 13% (-0.08 -0.08)
0-0 @ 9.73% (-0.474 -0.47)
2-2 @ 4.35% (0.154 0.15)
Other @ 0.7%
Total : 27.78%
0-1 @ 9.96% (-0.245 -0.24)
1-2 @ 6.66% (0.114 0.11)
0-2 @ 5.09% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.27% (0.089 0.09)
0-3 @ 1.74% (0.036 0.04)
2-3 @ 1.48% (0.085 0.09)
Other @ 1.97%
Total : 29.17%

How you voted: Finland vs Estonia

Finland
62.5%
Draw
25.0%
Estonia
12.5%
32
Head to Head
Jun 4, 2021 5pm
Friendlies 1
Finland
0-1
Estonia

Vaisanen (47')
Sappinen (59' pen.)
Puri (64'), Kait (74')
Jun 7, 2020 2pm
International Friendlies
Finland
P-P
Estonia
Jan 11, 2019 12pm
International Friendlies
Finland
1-2
Estonia
Karjalainen (81')
Granlund (84')
Kams (35'), Anier (62')
Lepmets (71')
Oct 12, 2018 7.45pm
League C2
Estonia
0-1
Finland

Zenjov (31'), Ojamaa (53')
Pukki (91')
Sparv (4'), Arajuuri (70'), Pukki (88')
Sep 11, 2018 7.45pm
League C2
Finland
1-0
Estonia
Pukki (12')

Mets (71'), Zenjov (84')
rhs 2.0
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