Fulham make the trip to Pride Park to face Derby County on Good Friday knowing that they still have work ahead of them if they want to lift the Championship title.
At a time when the Cottagers hold a 10-point lead over second position, Derby are nine points adrift of safety, making this contest a must win for the Rams.
Match preview
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Ahead of a home fixture with Coventry City, there was the assumption that Fulham would move to the brink of automatic promotion with a 13th home win of the season.
However, the West Londoners were well beaten by the Sky Blues, who were 2-0 ahead after 24 minutes and eventually prevailed by a 3-1 scoreline.
All things considered, the result will almost certainly not deny Fulham an immediate return to the Premier League, but it has left Marco Silva to reiterate to his players that they cannot avoid to get complacent.
Still sitting 10 points ahead of Bournemouth, however, the Portuguese will stress that it is not the time to panic, even if their final four fixtures are against teams occupying spots in the top six.
On a more positive note, Fulham have won 13 of their 20 away fixtures this campaign, collecting eight points more than the next best effort.
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For the first time in months, Derby feel like progress is being made off the pitch with regards to a new owner, a resolution being found arguably being the most important development of their season.
Nevertheless, relegation would hit a club the size of the Rams hard, and Wayne Rooney has been left to try to pull off the unthinkable of realistically collecting at least four wins from their remaining games.
The England legend will insist that his side should be taking one fixture at a time, but the clear consensus is that only a win will do against the best team in the second tier.
Derby head into this contest having earned 13 points from their last six fixtures at Pride Park, and they will attempt to withstand the division's most productive attack on the back of putting together the fourth-best home defensive record in the league.
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Team News
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After scoring Fulham's consolation goal against Coventry, Bobby Decordova-Reid could be handed a recall in a creative area.
Jean Michael Seri will hope to feature in central midfield, with Nathaniel Chalobah most likely to drop down to the substitutes' bench.
While further alterations are possible, Silva will be against tinkering with an otherwise successful team.
Rooney will consider making several changes to his Derby XI, including handing a recall to Festy Ebosele down the right flank.
Craig Forsyth and Jason Knight are both options in defence and midfield respectively, but Luke Plange is expected to retain his spot in attack.
Derby County possible starting lineup:
Allsop; Byrne, Cashin, Davies, Forsyth; Bielik, Thompson; Ebosele, Morrison, Lawrence; Plange
Fulham possible starting lineup:
Rodak; Williams, Adarabioyo, Ream, Robinson; Reed, Chalobah; Wilson, Carvalho, Reid; Mitrovic
We say: Derby County 0-2 Fulham
Given Derby's home form, it is difficult to rule out the Rams against any second-tier opponents at Pride Park. However, defeat for Fulham in their last game is the worst thing that could have happened for the East Midlands side, and the inevitable reaction from their opponents should lead to an away win.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fulham win with a probability of 51.52%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 23.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fulham win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.66%) and 1-2 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.92%), while for a Derby County win it was 1-0 (7.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.
