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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 52.01%. A win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 25.43% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.24%) and 2-0 (7.72%). The likeliest Fortuna Sittard win was 1-2 (6.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.3%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that NEC would win this match.
Result | ||
NEC | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
52.01% ( 0.26) | 22.55% ( -0.09) | 25.43% ( -0.17) |
Both teams to score 60.39% ( 0.16) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
60.4% ( 0.29) | 39.59% ( -0.29) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
38.05% ( 0.3) | 61.94% ( -0.3) |
NEC Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.65% ( 0.19) | 15.35% ( -0.19) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
55.89% ( 0.36) | 44.11% ( -0.36) |
Fortuna Sittard Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.34% ( 0.02) | 28.66% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.53% ( 0.03) | 64.47% ( -0.03) |
Score Analysis |
NEC | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
2-1 @ 9.65% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.24% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 7.72% 3-1 @ 6.03% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 4.83% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 3.77% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 2.83% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 2.26% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 1.77% ( 0.03) 5-1 @ 1.06% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.85% Total : 52.01% | 1-1 @ 10.3% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 6.03% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 4.4% ( -0.06) 3-3 @ 1.57% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.25% Total : 22.55% | 1-2 @ 6.44% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 5.5% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 3.43% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 2.68% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.51% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.43% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.44% Total : 25.43% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 33 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 108 | 20 | 88 | 88 |
2 | Feyenoord | 33 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 88 | 26 | 62 | 81 |
3 | FC Twente | 33 | 20 | 6 | 7 | 67 | 35 | 32 | 66 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 33 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 67 | 36 | 31 | 64 |
5 | Ajax | 33 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 72 | 59 | 13 | 55 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 33 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 64 | 50 | 14 | 50 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 46 | 44 | 2 | 49 |
8 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 49 | 47 | 2 | 46 |
9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 45 | 45 | 0 | 43 |
10 | Heerenveen | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 52 | 68 | -16 | 37 |
11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 37 | 56 | -19 | 37 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 44 | 65 | -21 | 36 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 32 | 55 | -23 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 33 | 9 | 5 | 19 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 32 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 37 | 53 | -16 | 29 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 33 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 50 | 69 | -19 | 29 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 33 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 33 | 86 | -53 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 28 | 72 | -44 | 5 |
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