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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 64%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a win for Heerenveen had a probability of 17.25%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.43%) and 1-3 (7.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.24%), while for a Heerenveen win it was 2-1 (4.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
Result | ||
Heerenveen | Draw | Ajax |
17.25% ( 0.02) | 18.75% ( -0.05) | 64% ( 0.03) |
Both teams to score 61.46% ( 0.25) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
67.47% ( 0.3) | 32.52% ( -0.3) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
45.82% ( 0.34) | 54.18% ( -0.35) |
Heerenveen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.04% ( 0.21) | 31.95% ( -0.21) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.59% ( 0.24) | 68.41% ( -0.24) |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.32% ( 0.09) | 9.68% ( -0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
67.72% ( 0.21) | 32.28% ( -0.22) |
Score Analysis |
Heerenveen | Draw | Ajax |
2-1 @ 4.7% ( -0) 1-0 @ 3.53% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 2.09% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 2.01% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 1.79% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.13% Total : 17.25% | 1-1 @ 8.24% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 5.49% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 3.09% ( -0.05) 3-3 @ 1.63% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.3% Total : 18.75% | 1-2 @ 9.62% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 8.43% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 7.49% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 7.22% ( -0.09) 0-3 @ 6.57% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 4.37% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 4.27% ( 0.03) 0-4 @ 3.83% ( 0) 2-4 @ 2.49% ( 0.03) 1-5 @ 2.04% ( 0.02) 0-5 @ 1.79% ( 0.01) 2-5 @ 1.17% ( 0.02) 3-4 @ 0.95% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.76% Total : 64% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 32 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 107 | 19 | 88 | 87 |
2 | Feyenoord | 32 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 85 | 24 | 61 | 78 |
3 | FC Twente | 32 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 60 | 33 | 27 | 63 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 64 | 36 | 28 | 61 |
5 | Ajax | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 69 | 59 | 10 | 52 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 62 | 47 | 15 | 50 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 32 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 46 | 43 | 3 | 49 |
8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 43 |
9 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 48 | 47 | 1 | 43 |
10 | Heerenveen | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 51 | 65 | -14 | 37 |
11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 36 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 43 | 64 | -21 | 35 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 32 | 9 | 5 | 18 | 41 | 70 | -29 | 32 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 36 | 52 | -16 | 28 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 46 | 69 | -23 | 26 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 32 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 31 | 79 | -48 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 25 | 71 | -46 | 2 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |