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Mainz logo
DFB-Pokal | Round of 16
Feb 1, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
OPEL ARENA
Bayern logo

Mainz
0 - 4
Bayern


Widmer (24'), Hack (49')
Svensson (82'), Hack (86')
FT(HT: 0-3)
Maxim Choupo-Moting (17'), Musiala (30'), Sane (44'), Davies (83')
Muller (38')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's DFB-Pokal clash between Mainz 05 and Bayern Munich, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions
DFB-Pokal
Last Game: Mainz 5-2 VfL Bochum
Saturday, January 28 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Bayern Munich

All competitions
DFB-Pokal
Last Game: Bayern 1-1 Frankfurt
Saturday, January 28 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Mainz 05 1-2 Bayern Munich

 Bayern will almost certainly travel to Mainz low on confidence given their recent run of draws, which has seen their healthy lead at the top of the Bundesliga almost evaporate. However, the Bavarians are likely to have too much quality for their opponents even if Nagelsmann does rotate as expected ahead of a busy schedule, but Mainz should make their opponents work hard for their victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 69.42%. A draw had a probability of 16.5% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 14.13%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.07%) and 1-3 (7.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.93%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 2-1 (3.91%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.

Result
Mainz 05DrawBayern Munich
14.13% (0.084 0.08) 16.45% (0.116 0.12) 69.42% (-0.20099999999999 -0.2)
Both teams to score 62.75% (-0.247 -0.25)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
72.39% (-0.395 -0.39)27.61% (0.394 0.39)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
51.74% (-0.496 -0.5)48.26% (0.495 0.49)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.64% (-0.166 -0.17)32.36% (0.166 0.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.12% (-0.191 -0.19)68.88% (0.191 0.19)
Bayern Munich Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
92.77% (-0.136 -0.14)7.23% (0.136 0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
73.79% (-0.358 -0.36)26.21% (0.359 0.36)
Score Analysis
    Mainz 05 14.13%
    Bayern Munich 69.42%
    Draw 16.45%
Mainz 05DrawBayern Munich
2-1 @ 3.91% (0.03 0.03)
1-0 @ 2.64% (0.051 0.05)
3-2 @ 1.93% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
2-0 @ 1.49% (0.022 0.02)
3-1 @ 1.47% (0.004 0)
Other @ 2.69%
Total : 14.13%
1-1 @ 6.93% (0.085 0.09)
2-2 @ 5.14% (0.0029999999999992 0)
0-0 @ 2.34% (0.056 0.06)
3-3 @ 1.69% (-0.019 -0.02)
Other @ 0.35%
Total : 16.45%
1-2 @ 9.11% (0.046999999999999 0.05)
0-2 @ 8.07% (0.077999999999999 0.08)
1-3 @ 7.98% (-0.016 -0.02)
0-3 @ 7.07% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
0-1 @ 6.15% (0.103 0.1)
1-4 @ 5.24% (-0.048 -0.05)
0-4 @ 4.64% (-0.021 -0.02)
2-3 @ 4.5% (-0.03 -0.03)
2-4 @ 2.96% (-0.041 -0.04)
1-5 @ 2.75% (-0.045 -0.04)
0-5 @ 2.44% (-0.028 -0.03)
2-5 @ 1.55% (-0.033 -0.03)
1-6 @ 1.21% (-0.028 -0.03)
3-4 @ 1.11% (-0.021 -0.02)
0-6 @ 1.07% (-0.02 -0.02)
Other @ 3.58%
Total : 69.42%

How you voted: Mainz vs Bayern

Mainz 05
12.4%
Draw
11.4%
Bayern Munich
76.2%
105
Head to Head
Oct 29, 2022 2.30pm
Bayern
6-2
Mainz
Gnabry (5'), Musiala (28'), Mane (43'), Goretzka (58'), Tel (79'), Maxim Choupo-Moting (86')
Widmer (45+4'), Ingvartsen (82')
Fernandes (34')
Apr 30, 2022 2.30pm
Mainz
3-1
Bayern
Burkardt (18'), Niakhate (27'), Barreiro (57')
Lewandowski (33')
Kimmich (43'), Hernandez (65'), Pavard (73'), Sane (86')
Dec 11, 2021 2.30pm
Bayern
2-1
Mainz
Coman (53'), Musiala (74')
Musiala (27'), Sane (36'), Hernandez (56')
Onisiwo (22')
Stach (59'), Hack (89'), Stoger (90+1')
> Preview
Apr 24, 2021 2.30pm
Mainz
2-1
Bayern
Burkardt (3'), Quaison (37')
Mwene (58'), St Juste (59'), da Costa (87')
Lewandowski (90+4')
Boateng (36'), Goretzka (41'), Alaba (42'), Lewandowski (73')
Jan 3, 2021 5pm
Bayern
5-2
Mainz
Kimmich (50'), Sane (55'), Sule (70'), Lewandowski (76' pen., 83')
Boateng (32'), Alaba (62')
Burkardt (32'), Hack (44')
Boetius (59')
rhs 2.0
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