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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 54.24%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 24.08% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.67%) and 0-2 (7.64%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 2-1 (6.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Borussia Dortmund in this match.
Result | ||
Mainz 05 | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
24.08% ( -0.13) | 21.69% ( -0.06) | 54.24% ( 0.2) |
Both teams to score 61.98% ( 0.05) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
63.16% ( 0.13) | 36.84% ( -0.13) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
40.99% ( 0.15) | 59.01% ( -0.14) |
Mainz 05 Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.78% ( -0.03) | 28.22% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.08% ( -0.04) | 63.92% ( 0.04) |
Borussia Dortmund Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.34% ( 0.11) | 13.66% ( -0.1) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
59.14% ( 0.21) | 40.86% ( -0.21) |
Score Analysis |
Mainz 05 | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
2-1 @ 6.14% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 4.88% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 3.09% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 2.59% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.58% ( -0) 3-0 @ 1.3% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.5% Total : 24.08% | 1-1 @ 9.71% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 6.11% ( -0) 0-0 @ 3.86% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.71% ( 0) Other @ 0.3% Total : 21.69% | 1-2 @ 9.66% ( 0) 0-1 @ 7.67% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 7.64% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 6.41% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 5.07% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 4.06% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 3.19% ( 0.03) 0-4 @ 2.52% ( 0.02) 2-4 @ 2.02% ( 0.01) 1-5 @ 1.27% ( 0.02) 0-5 @ 1% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.72% Total : 54.24% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 32 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 82 | 23 | 59 | 84 |
2 | Bayern MunichBayern | 32 | 22 | 3 | 7 | 90 | 41 | 49 | 69 |
3 | Stuttgart | 32 | 21 | 4 | 7 | 73 | 39 | 34 | 67 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 32 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 74 | 36 | 38 | 63 |
5 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 32 | 17 | 9 | 6 | 64 | 40 | 24 | 60 |
6 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 32 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 48 | 47 | 1 | 45 |
7 | Freiburg | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 43 | 55 | -12 | 41 |
8 | Hoffenheim | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 56 | 64 | -8 | 40 |
9 | Augsburg | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 49 | 57 | -8 | 39 |
10 | Heidenheim | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 45 | 53 | -8 | 38 |
11 | Werder Bremen | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 52 | -9 | 38 |
12 | Wolfsburg | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 37 |
13 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 32 | 7 | 12 | 13 | 55 | 62 | -7 | 33 |
14 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 32 | 7 | 12 | 13 | 41 | 65 | -24 | 33 |
15 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 32 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 29 | 54 | -25 | 30 |
16 | Mainz 05Mainz | 32 | 5 | 14 | 13 | 33 | 50 | -17 | 29 |
17 | FC Koln | 32 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 24 | 54 | -30 | 24 |
R | SV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt | 32 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 30 | 76 | -46 | 17 |
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