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Norwich logo
Championship | Gameweek 4
Oct 3, 2020 at 12.30pm UK
Carrow Road
Derby logo

Norwich
0 - 1
Derby


Buendia (44'), Zimmermann (54'), Rupp (86')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Rooney (87')
Shinnie (79'), Knight (79')

Preview: Norwich City vs. Derby County - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship fixture between Norwich City and Derby County, including team news and predicted lineups.

Norwich City play host to Derby County on Saturday afternoon looking to end a two-match winless streak in the Championship.

Meanwhile, the Rams make the trip to Carrow Road having lost all three matches in the league this season, conceding eight goals.


Match preview

Derby County manager Phillip Cocu pictured © Reuters

Eyebrows were raised when Derby handed a four-year contract to Philip Cocu last season, a decision which was largely regarded as bold given the Dutchman's lack of experience in English football.

The Rams have had their moments under the former national team midfielder, but four defeats in a row in all competitions has left Cocu needing instant improvements to save his job at Pride Park.

Derby supporters have been unable to take anything positive from any of their performances this season, the most recent one seeing them fall 3-0 behind to Blackburn Rovers within 15 minutes.

While the visitors did score two quality goals, succumbing so tamely further highlighted the low confidence levels in the Derby dressing room, something which Cocu is trying to improve with the arrival of fresh faces.

Even if the signings of Jordon Ibe and Bobby Duncan do inject some more energy into the team's attack, Cocu must find a way to solve the issues in defence now that eight goals have been conceded in three games.

As for Norwich, the vast array of new additions at Carrow Road have not proven enough to avoid a mild hangover after relegation from the Premier League.

Their sole win against Huddersfield Town was a direct result of an individual mistake, and Daniel Farke may feel that his team are fortunate to be on four points at this stage of the campaign.

Their one second-tier setback came by a narrow scoreline at Bournemouth, who have hit the ground running in their bid to earn an immediate return to the top flight.

However, three of Norwich's four goals in all competitions this season have come in the final 10 minutes, a statistic which will not have gone unnoticed by their head coach.

Norwich City Championship form: WDL
Norwich City form (all competitions): LWDL

Derby County Championship form: LLL
Derby County form (all competitions): DLLLL


Team News

Norwich City's Ben Godfrey celebrates on September 14, 2019© Reuters

Amid speculation regarding their future, Farke has decisions to make regarding Norwich trio Max Aarons, Ben Godfrey and Todd Cantwell.

Having failed to make an impact against Bournemouth last weekend, Teemu Pukki could be replaced by Jordan Hugill.

Kieran Dowell is expected to be sidelined until the end of the year with an ankle injury.

Cocu will make numerous changes to his Derby XI, which should see George Evans and Duane Holmes return to the starting lineup.

Ibe and Duncan will hope to be part of the squad for the first time, while Matthew Clarke will expect to be given a recall at the back.

Norwich City possible starting lineup:
Krul; Aarons, Zimmermann, Godfrey, Quintilla; Rupp, Skipp, McLean; Hernandez, Hugill, Placheta

Derby County possible starting lineup:
Marshall; Wisdom, De Wierik, Clarke, Buchanan; Evans, Bird; Knight, Rooney, Jozwiak; Marriott


SM words green background

We say: Norwich City 3-1 Derby County

With Derby showing no kind of form at either end of the pitch, we can only back Norwich to emerge victorious here. While the Canaries have been slow to get going this season, Farke's men will view this as the ideal opportunity to get back on track.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data

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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 38.22%. A win for Norwich City had a probability of 35.25% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.32%) and 0-2 (6.62%). The likeliest Norwich City win was 1-0 (9.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.61%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Derby County in this match.


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Todd Cantwell celebrates scoring for Norwich City on March 4, 2020
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