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Belenenses
Primeira Liga | Gameweek 29
Apr 26, 2021 at 5pm UK
Estádio do Restelo
Gil Vicente logo

Belenenses
2 - 1
Gil Vicente

Sousa (51'), Teixeira (90+1')
Henrique (4'), Sousa (4'), Teixeira (90+3')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Marques (43')
Carvalho (21'), Rodrigao (87')

Preview: Belenenses vs. Gil Vicente - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Monday's Primeira Liga clash between Belenenses and Gil Vicente, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Belenenses and Gil Vicente square off on Monday evening with the two sides locked on the same points in the Primeira Liga standings.

While the clubs sit in 11th and 12th place respectively, they remain just four points clear of the relegation zone with six games left in the season.


Match preview

Belenenses head coach Petit pictured in July 2020© Reuters

Having scored just 19 goals from 28 fixtures this campaign, it can be argued with justification that Belenenses are fortunate to be sitting in close proximity to mid-table.

Nevertheless, Petit's side have recorded 16 points from their last 12 fixtures, potentially moving the club to within a couple of wins of securing safety.

Everyone associated with the club will still be frustrated with letting slip a 2-0 lead against Sporting Lisbon on Wednesday, conceding two late goals to settle for a share of the spoils.

On a positive note, it was another point on the road against a top-four outfit having recently earned a 1-1 draw with Braga.

Mateo Cassierra scored each of the three strikes in those two fixtures, taking his tally for the season to seven in 18 starts and nine substitute outings.

Gil Vicente are another team who have benefitted from a much-improved run of results with four victories coming from just six encounters.

While Ricardo Soares was naturally disappointed with losing 3-0 to Famalicao on Thursday, two of the three goals came in added-on time while they were reduced to 10 men.

Three successive victories have been recorded away from home, a remarkable improvement on previously taking just eight points from their previous 11 fixtures on the road.

The most recent of those triumphs came at Benfica, and Soares will have every confidence that his side can get back on track at Estadio Nacional.

Belenenses Primeira Liga form:
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • D

Gil Vicente Primeira Liga form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • L



Team News

While Petit used a 5-4-1 formation at Sporting, the Belenenses boss will consider selecting a more attack-minded starting lineup for this contest.

Defender Goncalo Silva serves a one-match suspension for five yellow cards, putting Cafu Phete in line to deputise at the back.

The remainder of the team could stay the same with Silvestre Varela and Miguel Cardoso having more freedom to support Cassierra.

Gil Vicente will be without Ygor Nogueira after the centre-back was dismissed in the last game.

Rodrigao is expected to be handed an opportunity in the team, while Kanya Fujimoto is an option on the right-hand side of midfield.

Belenenses possible starting lineup:
Kritsyuk; Silva, Henrique, Ribeiro; Esgaio, Yaya, Sousa, Lima; Varela, Cassierra, Cardoso

Gil Vicente possible starting lineup:
Denis; Pereira, Fernandes, Rodrigao, Talocha; Carvalho, Mineiro, Pedrinho; Fujimoto, Marques, Lourency


SM words green background

We say: Belenenses 1-1 Gil Vicente

While both teams are aware of the potential rewards on offer with maximum points, they can also ill-afford to record a defeat. With that in mind, we feel that this contest could prove to be relatively uneventful, ending in a low-scoring draw.


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 37.11%. A win for Belenenses had a probability of 33.78% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.59%) and 0-2 (7.11%). The likeliest Belenenses win was 1-0 (11.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.39%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Belenenses vs Gil Vicente

Belenenses
52.0%
Draw
28.0%
Gil Vicente
20.0%
25
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Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sporting Lisbon31263289296081
2Benfica31244371254676
3Porto31196657263163
4Braga31195764442062
5Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes31186746321460
6MoreirenseMoreirense31137113234-246
7AroucaArouca311361253421145
8FamalicaoFamalicao31812113339-636
9Casa Pia3198143344-1135
10Estoril PraiaEstoril3196164652-633
11Rio AveRio Ave3151793339-632
12Gil Vicente3188153950-1132
13SC FarenseFarense3087153944-531
14BoavistaBoavista3179153557-2230
15Estrela Amadora30611133246-1429
16PortimonensePortimonense3177173466-3228
17ChavesChaves3158183165-3423
18Vizela31410173063-3322


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