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Preview: Hubert Hurkacz vs. Jack Draper - prediction, form guide, head-to-head

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Monte Carlo Masters first-round match between Hubert Hurkacz and Jack Draper, including predictions, form guide and head-to-head record.

One of the finest servers on the ATP Tour clashes with one of the best returners in Tuesday's intriguing Monte Carlo Masters first-round match, as Hubert Hurkacz and Jack Draper face off on the clay.

The victor will lock horns with either Roberto Bautista Agut or Facundo Diaz Acosta in the second round, before a potential third-round affair with feared foe Casper Ruud.


Match preview

Hubert Hurkacz reacts at the Shanghai Masters in October 2023© Reuters

Entering the 2024 Monte Carlo Masters as the 10th seed, Hurkacz's preparations for the ongoing ATP 1000 event could hardly have gone any better, as the Pole finally clinched his inaugural clay-court title during last week's Estoril Open.

In what was also his first-ever final on the surface, Hurkacz strolled to victory over Spain's Pedro Martinez for his maiden honour of 2024 and eighth overall - six of which had come on hard courts and another on the grass during the 2022 Halle Open in Germany.

Two of those triumphs for the world number eight have come in a Masters setting at the 2021 Miami Open and 2023 Shanghai Masters, but he only managed to get as far as round two at this year's Indian Wells Masters before a fourth-round elimination in Florida.

Gael Monfils and Grigor Dimitrov have both sent Hurkacz packing in ATP 1000 tournaments so far in 2024, but the 27-year-old boasts a respectable 19-8 record for the year and is unsurprisingly at the top of the charts in several serving categories.

Indeed, the 6ft 5in Estoril champion ranks first for first-serve points won (79.5%) and average aces per match - a whopping 14.9 - in 2024, and 89.6% of service games won is the second-best of its kind, marginally worse than the 89.8% next to Jannik Sinner's name.

Jack Draper reacts at the Australian Open on January 18, 2024© Reuters

However, if the statistics are anything to go by, Hurkacz must now find a way past a man who is extremely well-equipped to deal with his masterful serving game in Draper, set to compete in just his second Monte Carlo championships after a short-lived run in 2023.

After easing past Sebastian Baez in his tournament debut before coincidentally going down to Hurkacz in round two, the injury-plagued Briton sat out the remaining six Masters competitions of 2023 and failed to make waves in the United States either.

Draper's Indian Wells run came to a premature end with a three-set loss to Christopher O'Connell in round one, and while he briefly made amends by sinking Taro Daniel in his opening Miami battle, Chile's Nicolas Jarry proved too strong as the 22-year-old fell at the second hurdle.

Nevertheless, the up-and-coming Briton already has one ATP Final next to his name this year - losing January's Adelaide International showpiece to Jiri Lehecka - but he has not taken to the clay since retiring from his 2023 French Open first-round match with Tomas Martin Etcheverry.

However, the world number 39 has been the most ruthless player on the ATP Tour when it comes to taking break points - converting exactly 50% of his chances to do so in 2024 - while also sitting third for return games won with 29.0%, only behind Alex de Minaur (29.1%) and Carlos Alcaraz (30.6%) in that regard.


Head To Head

US Open (2023) - Second round: Draper wins 6-2 6-4 7-5
Monte Carlo Masters (2023) - Second round: Hurkacz wins 6-3 6-7[3] 7-5
European Open (2022) - Last 16: Hurkacz wins 7-6[5] 6-7[5] 6-1

Despite only clashing three times on the ATP Tour so far, Hurkacz and Draper have squared off in a couple of high-profile affairs, including their most recent encounter in the second round of last year's US Open.

On that occasion, a phenomenal showing from Draper saw the Briton prevail in straight sets, also earning his maiden victory over Hurkacz following two successes for the Pole in their opening two contests, one of which came on the Monte Carlo clay in 2023.

A second-set Draper fightback was in vain that day as Hurkacz advanced to round three, not long after also coming up trumps in their first ATP Tour meeting at the 2022 European Open in Antwerp, although that triumph did not come easily for him either.


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We say: Hurkacz to win in three sets

While Draper's US Open beating of Hurkacz several months ago was on the more convincing side of things, the world number eight is yet to truly dominate a match with his 22-year-old foe, who has the returning tools required to thwart the Pole's ferocious serving game.

However, Hurkacz has finally discovered that precious winning feeling on the clay, and with Draper lacking match practice on the surface, the two-time Masters winner should edge a tense affair to book his spot in round two.

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