Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 62.47%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Monza had a probability of 16.02%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.52%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.22%), while for a Monza win it was 0-1 (5.33%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
Result | ||
AC Milan | Draw | Monza |
62.47% ( -0.18) | 21.5% ( 0.02) | 16.02% ( 0.15) |
Both teams to score 48.96% ( 0.27) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52.41% ( 0.19) | 47.59% ( -0.19) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.21% ( 0.17) | 69.79% ( -0.18) |
AC Milan Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.35% ( 0) | 14.65% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
57.21% ( 0.01) | 42.79% ( -0.02) |
Monza Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
57.36% ( 0.31) | 42.64% ( -0.32) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
21.02% ( 0.27) | 78.98% ( -0.27) |
Score Analysis |
AC Milan | Draw | Monza |
1-0 @ 11.99% ( -0.1) 2-0 @ 11.52% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 9.82% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 7.38% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 6.29% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 3.54% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 3.02% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.68% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 1.36% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.29% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.16% ( 0) Other @ 2.42% Total : 62.46% | 1-1 @ 10.22% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.25% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 4.19% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.85% Total : 21.5% | 0-1 @ 5.33% ( 0) 1-2 @ 4.36% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 2.27% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.24% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.19% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.64% Total : 16.02% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Inter Milan | 35 | 28 | 5 | 2 | 81 | 19 | 62 | 89 |
2 | AC Milan | 35 | 21 | 8 | 6 | 67 | 42 | 25 | 71 |
3 | Juventus | 35 | 18 | 12 | 5 | 48 | 27 | 21 | 66 |
4 | Bologna | 35 | 17 | 13 | 5 | 49 | 27 | 22 | 64 |
5 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 63 | 38 | 25 | 60 |
6 | Roma | 35 | 17 | 9 | 9 | 62 | 42 | 20 | 60 |
7 | Lazio | 35 | 17 | 5 | 13 | 45 | 37 | 8 | 56 |
8 | Napoli | 35 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 53 | 44 | 9 | 51 |
9 | Fiorentina | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 51 | 39 | 12 | 50 |
10 | Torino | 35 | 11 | 14 | 10 | 31 | 31 | 0 | 47 |
11 | Monza | 35 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 38 | 46 | -8 | 45 |
12 | Genoa | 35 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 41 | 43 | -2 | 43 |
13 | Lecce | 35 | 8 | 13 | 14 | 32 | 50 | -18 | 37 |
14 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 35 | 8 | 10 | 17 | 33 | 46 | -13 | 34 |
15 | CagliariCagliari | 35 | 7 | 12 | 16 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 33 |
16 | FrosinoneFrosinone | 35 | 7 | 11 | 17 | 43 | 63 | -20 | 32 |
17 | Empoli | 35 | 8 | 8 | 19 | 26 | 50 | -24 | 32 |
18 | Udinese | 35 | 4 | 18 | 13 | 33 | 52 | -19 | 30 |
19 | SassuoloSassuolo | 35 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 41 | 70 | -29 | 29 |
R | Salernitana | 35 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 27 | 75 | -48 | 15 |
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