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Serie A | Gameweek 28
Mar 10, 2024 at 2pm UK
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Empoli logo

AC Milan
1 - 0
Empoli

Pulisic (40')
Reijnders (26')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Fazzini (24'), Pezzella (53'), Zurkowski (65'), Cancellieri (80')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between AC Milan and Empoli, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: AC Milan 4-2 Slavia Prague
Thursday, March 7 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: Empoli 0-1 Cagliari
Sunday, March 3 at 2pm in Serie A

We said: AC Milan 2-0 Empoli

Now capable of scoring via a number of different sources, Milan should be able to rotate their squad between European contests and still take maximum points against Empoli. The Azzurri are much improved under Davide Nicola, but they must take a step-up in class on Sunday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 63.06%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Empoli had a probability of 16.42%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.3%) and 2-1 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.69%), while for a Empoli win it was 0-1 (4.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.

Result
AC MilanDrawEmpoli
63.06% (-0.082000000000001 -0.08) 20.51% (0.053999999999998 0.05) 16.42% (0.029 0.03)
Both teams to score 53.09% (-0.124 -0.12)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.46% (-0.198 -0.2)42.53% (0.199 0.2)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.06% (-0.19600000000001 -0.2)64.94% (0.19800000000001 0.2)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.13% (-0.080999999999989 -0.08)12.86% (0.083 0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
60.75% (-0.173 -0.17)39.25% (0.174 0.17)
Empoli Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.93% (-0.085000000000001 -0.09)39.07% (0.087000000000003 0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.21% (-0.082000000000001 -0.08)75.79% (0.084000000000003 0.08)
Score Analysis
    AC Milan 63.05%
    Empoli 16.42%
    Draw 20.51%
AC MilanDrawEmpoli
2-0 @ 10.56% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
1-0 @ 10.3% (0.06 0.06)
2-1 @ 9.93%
3-0 @ 7.22% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
3-1 @ 6.79% (-0.022 -0.02)
4-0 @ 3.7% (-0.014 -0.01)
4-1 @ 3.48% (-0.022 -0.02)
3-2 @ 3.19% (-0.018 -0.02)
4-2 @ 1.64% (-0.014 -0.01)
5-0 @ 1.52% (-0.011 -0.01)
5-1 @ 1.43% (-0.013 -0.01)
Other @ 3.29%
Total : 63.05%
1-1 @ 9.69% (0.032 0.03)
0-0 @ 5.03% (0.044 0.04)
2-2 @ 4.67% (-0.011 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1% (-0.0079999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 20.51%
0-1 @ 4.72% (0.031000000000001 0.03)
1-2 @ 4.55% (0.0039999999999996 0)
0-2 @ 2.22% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.46% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
1-3 @ 1.43% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.04%
Total : 16.42%

How you voted: AC Milan vs Empoli

AC Milan
87.5%
Draw
7.3%
Empoli
5.2%
96
Head to Head
Jan 7, 2024 11.30am
Gameweek 19
Empoli
0-3
AC Milan

Marin (81')
Loftus-Cheek (11'), Giroud (31' pen.), Traore (88')
Calabria (41'), Jimenez (54')
Apr 7, 2023 8pm
Oct 1, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 8
Empoli
1-3
AC Milan
Bajrami (90+1')
Rebic (79'), Ballo-Toure (90+3'), Leao (90+6')
Mar 12, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 29
AC Milan
1-0
Empoli
Kalulu (19')
Tonali (90+4')
Dec 22, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 19
Empoli
2-4
AC Milan
Bajrami (18'), Pinamonti (84' pen.)
Romagnoli (62')
Kessie (12', 42'), Florenzi (63'), Hernandez (69')
Tonali (39'), Bennacer (80')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CInter Milan35285281196289
2AC Milan35218667422571
3Juventus351812548272166
4Bologna351713549272264
5Roma35179962422060
6Atalanta BCAtalanta331761061372457
7Lazio35175134537856
8Fiorentina341481251391250
9Napoli341311105243950
10Torino351114103131047
11Monza351112123846-845
12Genoa351013124143-243
13Lecce35813143250-1837
14Hellas VeronaHellas Verona35810173346-1334
15CagliariCagliari35712163760-2333
16FrosinoneFrosinone35711174363-2032
17Empoli3588192650-2432
18Udinese34417133251-1929
19SassuoloSassuolo3578204170-2929
RSalernitana3429232673-4715


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