Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 64.13%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Vizela had a probability of 15.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.03%) and 2-1 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.72%), while for a Vizela win it was 0-1 (4.78%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
Result | ||
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Vizela |
64.13% ( -0.25) | 20.46% ( 0.11) | 15.41% ( 0.15) |
Both teams to score 50.89% ( 0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.73% ( -0.17) | 44.28% ( 0.17) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.35% ( -0.17) | 66.65% ( 0.17) |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.91% ( -0.12) | 13.09% ( 0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
60.29% ( -0.26) | 39.71% ( 0.26) |
Vizela Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
58.56% ( 0.09) | 41.44% ( -0.08) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
22.05% ( 0.08) | 77.95% ( -0.08) |
Score Analysis |
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Vizela |
2-0 @ 11.21% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 11.03% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 9.88% ( 0) 3-0 @ 7.6% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 6.69% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 3.86% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 3.4% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.95% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.57% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 1.5% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.38% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.04% Total : 64.12% | 1-1 @ 9.72% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 5.43% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 4.35% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.97% Total : 20.46% | 0-1 @ 4.78% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 4.28% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 2.11% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 1.28% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.26% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.71% Total : 15.41% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Benfica | 33 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 76 | 27 | 49 | 79 |
3 | Porto | 33 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 62 | 27 | 35 | 69 |
4 | Braga | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 71 | 49 | 22 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 52 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 36 |
12 | Casa Pia | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 35 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
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