Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 56.33%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 19.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.8%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.37%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 0-1 (6.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.
Result | ||
Moreirense | Draw | Estrela Amadora |
56.33% ( 0.05) | 24% ( -0.01) | 19.67% ( -0.05) |
Both teams to score 48.19% ( -0.05) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
47.83% ( -0.02) | 52.16% ( 0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.12% ( -0.02) | 73.88% ( 0.02) |
Moreirense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.64% ( 0.01) | 18.36% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
50.51% ( 0.02) | 49.48% ( -0.02) |
Estrela Amadora Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
59.03% ( -0.07) | 40.97% ( 0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
22.47% ( -0.06) | 77.53% ( 0.06) |
Score Analysis |
Moreirense | Draw | Estrela Amadora |
1-0 @ 12.75% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 10.8% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.64% ( -0) 3-0 @ 6.11% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 5.45% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.59% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.43% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.31% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.03% ( -0) Other @ 3.23% Total : 56.33% | 1-1 @ 11.37% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.52% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.3% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.8% Total : 23.99% | 0-1 @ 6.71% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 5.08% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 3% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.51% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.28% ( -0) Other @ 2.09% Total : 19.67% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 89 | 29 | 60 | 81 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 63 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 46 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 42 | 44 | -2 | 34 |
11 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 33 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
13 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 31 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 22 |
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