Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 38.02%. A win for Moreirense had a probability of 35.93% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.36%) and 0-2 (6.4%). The likeliest Moreirense win was 1-0 (9.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood.
Result | ||
Moreirense | Draw | Arouca |
35.93% ( 0.27) | 26.05% ( 0.28) | 38.02% ( -0.55) |
Both teams to score 54.03% ( -0.92) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.58% ( -1.19) | 50.42% ( 1.2) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.64% ( -1.07) | 72.35% ( 1.07) |
Moreirense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.91% ( -0.41) | 27.09% ( 0.41) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.53% ( -0.54) | 62.47% ( 0.54) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.1% ( -0.84) | 25.9% ( 0.85) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.11% ( -1.16) | 60.88% ( 1.16) |
Score Analysis |
Moreirense | Draw | Arouca |
1-0 @ 9.16% ( 0.33) 2-1 @ 8.08% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 5.98% ( 0.15) 3-1 @ 3.52% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 2.61% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.38% ( -0.09) 4-1 @ 1.15% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.05% Total : 35.93% | 1-1 @ 12.37% ( 0.15) 0-0 @ 7.02% ( 0.33) 2-2 @ 5.46% ( -0.13) 3-3 @ 1.07% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.13% Total : 26.04% | 0-1 @ 9.48% ( 0.23) 1-2 @ 8.36% ( -0.1) 0-2 @ 6.4% ( -0) 1-3 @ 3.77% ( -0.14) 0-3 @ 2.88% ( -0.07) 2-3 @ 2.46% ( -0.12) 1-4 @ 1.27% ( -0.08) 0-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.42% Total : 38.02% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 89 | 29 | 60 | 81 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 63 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 46 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 42 | 44 | -2 | 34 |
11 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 33 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
13 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 31 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 22 |
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