Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 35.63%. A win for Rio Ave had a probability of 35.6% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.5%) and 2-0 (6.68%). The likeliest Rio Ave win was 0-1 (11.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Casa Pia in this match.
Result | ||
Casa Pia | Draw | Rio Ave |
35.63% ( 0.48) | 28.77% ( -0.12) | 35.6% ( -0.36) |
Both teams to score 45.51% ( 0.34) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
38.95% ( 0.41) | 61.05% ( -0.41) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
18.97% ( 0.31) | 81.03% ( -0.3) |
Casa Pia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.47% ( 0.53) | 32.52% ( -0.53) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.94% ( 0.59) | 69.05% ( -0.59) |
Rio Ave Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.45% ( -0.02) | 32.54% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.92% ( -0.03) | 69.08% ( 0.03) |
Score Analysis |
Casa Pia | Draw | Rio Ave |
1-0 @ 11.88% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 7.5% ( 0.1) 2-0 @ 6.68% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 2.81% ( 0.08) 3-0 @ 2.5% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 1.58% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.69% Total : 35.62% | 1-1 @ 13.34% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 10.58% ( -0.16) 2-2 @ 4.21% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.64% Total : 28.76% | 0-1 @ 11.88% ( -0.19) 1-2 @ 7.49% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 6.67% ( -0.11) 1-3 @ 2.8% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.5% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 1.57% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.68% Total : 35.59% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 96 | 29 | 67 | 90 |
2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 80 |
3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 72 |
4 | Braga | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 63 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 55 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 54 | 50 | 4 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 38 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 37 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 36 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 33 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 33 |
15 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 32 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 72 | -33 | 32 |
R | Vizela | 34 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 36 | 66 | -30 | 26 |
R | ChavesChaves | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 23 |
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