Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 63.59%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Portimonense had a probability of 16.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.23%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.58%), while for a Portimonense win it was 0-1 (4.62%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
Result | ||
Braga | Draw | Portimonense |
63.59% ( 3.49) | 20.29% ( -1.12) | 16.11% ( -2.38) |
Both teams to score 53.13% ( -1.17) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.86% ( 0.88) | 42.13% ( -0.88) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.46% ( 0.87) | 64.54% ( -0.87) |
Braga Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.4% ( 1.3) | 12.59% ( -1.31) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
61.32% ( 2.64) | 38.68% ( -2.64) |
Portimonense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
60.78% ( -2.28) | 39.22% ( 2.28) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.07% ( -2.2) | 75.92% ( 2.2) |
Score Analysis |
Braga | Draw | Portimonense |
2-0 @ 10.6% ( 0.6) 1-0 @ 10.23% ( 0.1) 2-1 @ 9.92% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 7.32% ( 0.75) 3-1 @ 6.86% ( 0.31) 4-0 @ 3.79% ( 0.55) 4-1 @ 3.55% ( 0.32) 3-2 @ 3.21% ( -0.05) 4-2 @ 1.66% ( 0.05) 5-0 @ 1.57% ( 0.29) 5-1 @ 1.47% ( 0.2) Other @ 3.4% Total : 63.59% | 1-1 @ 9.58% ( -0.5) 0-0 @ 4.94% ( -0.2) 2-2 @ 4.65% ( -0.31) 3-3 @ 1% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.13% Total : 20.29% | 0-1 @ 4.62% ( -0.49) 1-2 @ 4.48% ( -0.54) 0-2 @ 2.16% ( -0.38) 2-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.2) 1-3 @ 1.4% ( -0.27) Other @ 2% Total : 16.11% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 32 | 27 | 3 | 2 | 92 | 29 | 63 | 84 |
2 | Benfica | 32 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 71 | 27 | 44 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 32 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 60 | 26 | 34 | 66 |
4 | Braga | 32 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 68 | 47 | 21 | 65 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 47 | 34 | 13 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 49 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 32 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 32 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 39 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 32 | 6 | 17 | 9 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 35 |
11 | Casa Pia | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 35 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 33 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 48 | 55 | -7 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 58 | -22 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 32 | 6 | 12 | 14 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 34 | 69 | -35 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 31 | 68 | -37 | 23 |
R | Vizela | 32 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 30 | 64 | -34 | 22 |
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