Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 55.4%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Nantes had a probability of 21.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10%) and 1-2 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.2%), while for a Nantes win it was 1-0 (6.42%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
Result | ||
Nantes | Draw | Marseille |
21.03% ( 0.43) | 23.57% ( 0.36) | 55.4% ( -0.79) |
Both teams to score 51.49% ( -0.48) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.19% ( -0.95) | 48.81% ( 0.95) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.09% ( -0.87) | 70.9% ( 0.87) |
Nantes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.39% ( -0.1) | 37.61% ( 0.1) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.61% ( -0.1) | 74.39% ( 0.1) |
Marseille Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.53% ( -0.63) | 17.47% ( 0.63) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
52.05% ( -1.1) | 47.94% ( 1.1) |
Score Analysis |
Nantes | Draw | Marseille |
1-0 @ 6.42% ( 0.23) 2-1 @ 5.48% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 3.14% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 1.79% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 1.56% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 1.02% ( 0.03) Other @ 1.61% Total : 21.03% | 1-1 @ 11.2% ( 0.17) 0-0 @ 6.57% ( 0.25) 2-2 @ 4.78% ( -0.04) 3-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.1% Total : 23.56% | 0-1 @ 11.46% ( 0.21) 0-2 @ 10% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 9.78% ( -0.05) 0-3 @ 5.82% ( -0.14) 1-3 @ 5.69% ( -0.15) 2-3 @ 2.78% ( -0.08) 0-4 @ 2.54% ( -0.11) 1-4 @ 2.48% ( -0.12) 2-4 @ 1.21% ( -0.06) Other @ 3.64% Total : 55.4% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 31 | 20 | 10 | 1 | 76 | 29 | 47 | 70 |
2 | MonacoMonaco | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 62 | 42 | 20 | 61 |
3 | Brest | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 49 | 33 | 16 | 57 |
4 | Lille | 32 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 48 | 31 | 17 | 55 |
5 | Nice | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 36 | 25 | 11 | 51 |
6 | Lens | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 42 | 34 | 8 | 49 |
7 | Lyon | 32 | 14 | 5 | 13 | 46 | 54 | -8 | 47 |
8 | Rennes | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 51 | 43 | 8 | 45 |
9 | Marseille | 31 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 47 | 38 | 9 | 44 |
10 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 40 |
11 | Toulouse | 32 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 39 | 42 | -3 | 40 |
12 | Reims | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 40 |
13 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 35 | 47 | -12 | 36 |
14 | NantesNantes | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 29 | 49 | -20 | 33 |
15 | Le HavreLe Havre | 32 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 33 | 42 | -9 | 32 |
16 | Metz | 32 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 34 | 54 | -20 | 29 |
17 | Lorient | 32 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 37 | 63 | -26 | 26 |
18 | Clermont | 32 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 26 | 54 | -28 | 25 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |