Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montpellier HSC win with a probability of 45.51%. A win for Lorient had a probability of 30.92% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montpellier HSC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.83%) and 2-0 (6.7%). The likeliest Lorient win was 1-2 (7.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Montpellier HSC would win this match.
Result | ||
Montpellier HSC | Draw | Lorient |
45.51% ( 0.08) | 23.57% ( 0.03) | 30.92% ( -0.11) |
Both teams to score 61.16% ( -0.16) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59.51% ( -0.18) | 40.48% ( 0.17) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
37.14% ( -0.18) | 62.86% ( 0.18) |
Montpellier HSC Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.91% ( -0.04) | 18.08% ( 0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
50.99% ( -0.07) | 49% ( 0.06) |
Lorient Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.66% ( -0.16) | 25.33% ( 0.15) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.88% ( -0.21) | 60.12% ( 0.21) |
Score Analysis |
Montpellier HSC | Draw | Lorient |
2-1 @ 9.2% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.83% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 6.7% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 5.24% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.82% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 3.6% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 2.24% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.63% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.54% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.7% Total : 45.51% | 1-1 @ 10.75% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.32% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 4.58% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.65% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.27% Total : 23.56% | 1-2 @ 7.39% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 6.29% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 4.32% ( -0) 1-3 @ 3.38% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.89% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.98% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.16% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 0.99% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.53% Total : 30.92% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 31 | 20 | 10 | 1 | 76 | 29 | 47 | 70 |
2 | MonacoMonaco | 31 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 58 | 41 | 17 | 58 |
3 | Brest | 31 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 49 | 33 | 16 | 56 |
4 | Lille | 31 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 45 | 27 | 18 | 55 |
5 | Nice | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 36 | 25 | 11 | 51 |
6 | Lens | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 40 | 34 | 6 | 46 |
7 | Marseille | 31 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 47 | 38 | 9 | 44 |
8 | Lyon | 31 | 13 | 5 | 13 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 44 |
9 | Rennes | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 48 | 41 | 7 | 42 |
10 | Toulouse | 31 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 38 | 40 | -2 | 40 |
11 | Reims | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 40 |
12 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 31 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 37 |
13 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 34 | 44 | -10 | 36 |
14 | NantesNantes | 31 | 9 | 5 | 17 | 29 | 49 | -20 | 32 |
15 | Le HavreLe Havre | 31 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 29 |
16 | Metz | 31 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 32 | 51 | -19 | 29 |
17 | Lorient | 31 | 6 | 8 | 17 | 37 | 61 | -24 | 26 |
18 | Clermont | 31 | 5 | 10 | 16 | 25 | 50 | -25 | 25 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |