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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 39.63%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 37.24% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.32%) and 0-2 (5.26%). The likeliest Newport County win was 2-1 (8.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.15%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.
Result | ||
Newport County | Draw | Swindon Town |
37.24% ( 0.59) | 23.13% ( -0.16) | 39.63% ( -0.43) |
Both teams to score 64.8% ( 0.69) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
63.45% ( 0.87) | 36.55% ( -0.87) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
41.3% ( 0.95) | 58.7% ( -0.95) |
Newport County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.95% ( 0.67) | 20.05% ( -0.68) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47.72% ( 1.07) | 52.28% ( -1.07) |
Swindon Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.05% ( 0.18) | 18.95% ( -0.18) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.53% ( 0.3) | 50.47% ( -0.3) |
Score Analysis |
Newport County | Draw | Swindon Town |
2-1 @ 8.16% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 6.11% ( -0.14) 2-0 @ 4.91% ( -0) 3-1 @ 4.37% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 3.64% ( 0.11) 3-0 @ 2.63% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 1.76% ( 0.08) 4-2 @ 1.46% ( 0.07) 4-0 @ 1.06% ( 0.04) Other @ 3.16% Total : 37.24% | 1-1 @ 10.15% ( -0.17) 2-2 @ 6.79% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 3.8% ( -0.17) 3-3 @ 2.02% ( 0.07) Other @ 0.38% Total : 23.13% | 1-2 @ 8.45% ( -0.09) 0-1 @ 6.32% ( -0.24) 0-2 @ 5.26% ( -0.17) 1-3 @ 4.68% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 3.76% ( 0.06) 0-3 @ 2.92% ( -0.08) 1-4 @ 1.95% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1.57% ( 0.03) 0-4 @ 1.21% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.52% Total : 39.63% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Stockport CountyStockport | 46 | 27 | 11 | 8 | 96 | 48 | 48 | 92 |
P | Wrexham | 46 | 26 | 10 | 10 | 89 | 52 | 37 | 88 |
P | Mansfield TownMansfield | 46 | 24 | 14 | 8 | 90 | 47 | 43 | 86 |
4 | MK Dons | 46 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 83 | 68 | 15 | 78 |
5 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 46 | 21 | 8 | 17 | 73 | 68 | 5 | 71 |
6 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 69 | 65 | 4 | 71 |
7 | Crawley TownCrawley | 46 | 21 | 7 | 18 | 73 | 67 | 6 | 70 |
8 | BarrowBarrow | 46 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 62 | 56 | 6 | 69 |
9 | Bradford CityBradford | 46 | 19 | 12 | 15 | 61 | 59 | 2 | 69 |
10 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 64 | 51 | 13 | 65 |
11 | Walsall | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 69 | 73 | -4 | 65 |
12 | Gillingham | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 46 | 57 | -11 | 64 |
13 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 46 | 17 | 12 | 17 | 60 | 69 | -9 | 63 |
14 | Notts County | 46 | 18 | 7 | 21 | 89 | 86 | 3 | 61 |
15 | Morecambe | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 67 | 81 | -14 | 58 |
16 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 46 | 17 | 6 | 23 | 67 | 70 | -3 | 57 |
17 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 63 | 71 | -8 | 57 |
18 | Newport CountyNewport | 46 | 16 | 7 | 23 | 62 | 76 | -14 | 55 |
19 | Swindon TownSwindon | 46 | 14 | 12 | 20 | 77 | 83 | -6 | 54 |
20 | Salford City | 46 | 13 | 12 | 21 | 66 | 82 | -16 | 51 |
21 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 11 | 16 | 19 | 57 | 74 | -17 | 49 |
22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 46 | 11 | 12 | 23 | 59 | 80 | -21 | 45 |
R | Sutton UnitedSutton | 46 | 9 | 15 | 22 | 59 | 84 | -25 | 42 |
R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 46 | 11 | 9 | 26 | 44 | 78 | -34 | 42 |
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