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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 54.9%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Preston North End had a probability of 21.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.81%) and 2-1 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.21%), while for a Preston North End win it was 0-1 (6.43%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Middlesbrough would win this match.
Result | ||
Middlesbrough | Draw | Preston North End |
54.9% ( -0.63) | 23.6% ( 0.02) | 21.5% ( 0.61) |
Both teams to score 52.08% ( 0.8) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.64% ( 0.63) | 48.36% ( -0.62) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.5% ( 0.57) | 70.5% ( -0.57) |
Middlesbrough Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.51% ( -0) | 17.48% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
52.02% ( -0) | 47.97% ( 0.01) |
Preston North End Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.11% ( 0.97) | 36.88% ( -0.97) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.33% ( 0.95) | 73.67% ( -0.95) |
Score Analysis |
Middlesbrough | Draw | Preston North End |
1-0 @ 11.24% ( -0.29) 2-0 @ 9.81% ( -0.26) 2-1 @ 9.78% ( 0) 3-0 @ 5.7% ( -0.15) 3-1 @ 5.69% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.84% ( 0.07) 4-0 @ 2.49% ( -0.07) 4-1 @ 2.48% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.24% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.65% Total : 54.9% | 1-1 @ 11.21% 0-0 @ 6.45% ( -0.17) 2-2 @ 4.88% ( 0.13) 3-3 @ 0.94% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.11% Total : 23.59% | 0-1 @ 6.43% ( 0) 1-2 @ 5.59% ( 0.15) 0-2 @ 3.21% ( 0.09) 1-3 @ 1.86% ( 0.1) 2-3 @ 1.62% ( 0.08) 0-3 @ 1.07% ( 0.06) Other @ 1.72% Total : 21.5% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Leicester CityLeicester | 46 | 31 | 4 | 11 | 89 | 41 | 48 | 97 |
P | Ipswich TownIpswich | 46 | 28 | 12 | 6 | 92 | 57 | 35 | 96 |
3 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 46 | 27 | 9 | 10 | 81 | 43 | 38 | 90 |
4 | Southampton | 46 | 26 | 9 | 11 | 87 | 63 | 24 | 87 |
5 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 46 | 21 | 12 | 13 | 70 | 47 | 23 | 75 |
6 | Norwich CityNorwich | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 79 | 64 | 15 | 73 |
7 | Hull City | 46 | 19 | 13 | 14 | 68 | 60 | 8 | 70 |
8 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 71 | 62 | 9 | 69 |
9 | Coventry CityCoventry | 46 | 17 | 13 | 16 | 70 | 59 | 11 | 64 |
10 | Preston North EndPreston | 46 | 18 | 9 | 19 | 56 | 67 | -11 | 63 |
11 | Bristol City | 46 | 17 | 11 | 18 | 53 | 51 | 2 | 62 |
12 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 46 | 19 | 5 | 22 | 53 | 70 | -17 | 62 |
13 | Millwall | 46 | 16 | 11 | 19 | 45 | 55 | -10 | 59 |
14 | Swansea CitySwansea | 46 | 15 | 12 | 19 | 59 | 65 | -6 | 57 |
15 | Watford | 46 | 13 | 17 | 16 | 61 | 61 | 0 | 56 |
16 | Sunderland | 46 | 16 | 8 | 22 | 52 | 54 | -2 | 56 |
17 | Stoke CityStoke | 46 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 49 | 60 | -11 | 56 |
18 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 46 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 47 | 58 | -11 | 56 |
19 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 60 | 74 | -14 | 53 |
20 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 46 | 15 | 8 | 23 | 44 | 68 | -24 | 53 |
21 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 46 | 13 | 12 | 21 | 59 | 70 | -11 | 51 |
R | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 46 | 13 | 11 | 22 | 50 | 65 | -15 | 50 |
R | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 46 | 9 | 18 | 19 | 48 | 77 | -29 | 45 |
R | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 46 | 5 | 12 | 29 | 37 | 89 | -52 | 27 |
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