Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage
Oct 14, 2023 at 2pm UK
Windsor Park
We said: Northern Ireland 3-0 San Marino
Without a victory for nearly two decades, San Marino's winless run stands at 132 matches ahead of their trip to Windsor Park, where they are set to be dealt a seventh straight defeat in Group H. Northern Ireland often struggle to score, but home advantage and a relative lack of pressure should help them comfortably see off one of football's smallest minnows.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northern Ireland win with a probability of 95.85%. A draw had a probability of 3.7% and a win for San Marino had a probability of 0.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northern Ireland win was 3-0 with a probability of 18.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (16.76%) and 2-0 (15.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (2.46%), while for a San Marino win it was 0-1 (0.32%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 18.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 3-0 win for Northern Ireland in this match.
| Result |
| Northern Ireland | Draw | San Marino |
95.85% ( -0.03) | 3.73% ( 0.02) | 0.42% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 11.78% ( 0.12) |
