Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage
Mar 23, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
We said: San Marino 0-2 Northern Ireland
While this should theoretically be one of Northern Ireland's easiest fixtures of the group, it comes with the added pressure of being a must-win. Although the visitors should achieve that comfortably enough, do not expect the goals to flow as they normally do against San Marino.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northern Ireland win with a probability of 77.17%. A draw had a probability of 15.7% and a win for San Marino had a probability of 7.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northern Ireland win was 0-2 with a probability of 15.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (13.49%) and 0-3 (11.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.28%), while for a San Marino win it was 1-0 (3.17%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 15.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 0-2 win for Northern Ireland in this match.
| Result |
| San Marino | Draw | Northern Ireland |
7.09% ( 0.05) | 15.74% ( 0.09) | 77.17% ( -0.14) |
| Both teams to score 37.47% ( -0.04) |
