Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage
Jun 30, 2023 at 1am UK
Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello
Defensa3 - 1Millonarios
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Argentinos Jrs 3-1 Defensa
Saturday, June 24 at 1.30am in Argentine Primera Division
Saturday, June 24 at 1.30am in Argentine Primera Division
Goals
for
for
26
Last Game: America Mineiro 2-0 Millonarios
Wednesday, June 7 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana
Wednesday, June 7 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana
We said: Defensa y Justicia 1-1 Millonarios
With confidence from the 3-0 beating they dished out to Defensa y Justicia in the reverse fixture, Millonarios travel knowing that only a win will be enough to guarantee them a round-of-16 place without a playoff, but we do not see them pulling off another victory in Argentina and instead opt for a draw, which would cement the first and second-placed finishes. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 52.05%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Millonarios had a probability of 21.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.52%) and 2-1 (9.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.19%), while for a Millonarios win it was 0-1 (8.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensa y Justicia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Defensa y Justicia | Draw | Millonarios |
52.05% ( -0.47) | 26.14% ( 0.14) | 21.81% ( 0.33) |
| Both teams to score 45.15% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
