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Copa Libertadores
Flamengo
Copa Libertadores | Semi-Finals | 2nd Leg
Sep 8, 2022 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho

Flamengo
2 - 1
Velez Sarsfield

Pedro (42'), Marinho (68')
Luis (51'), Vidal (58')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Pratto (21')
Garayalde (62'), Seoane (90'), Brizuela (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Libertadores clash between Flamengo and Velez Sarsfield, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Flamengo

Last Six:
Last Game: Flamengo 1-1 Ceara
Sunday, September 4 at 3pm in Brasileiro

Velez Sarsfield

Last Six:
Last Game: Velez Sarsfield 0-1 Newell's OB
Saturday, September 3 at 7.30pm in Argentine Primera Division

We said: Flamengo 3-0 Velez Sarsfield (Flamengo advances 7-0 on aggregate).

 Flamengo have never lost a two-leg semi-final in this competition and have not conceded four goals in a match since a 4-0 domestic defeat to Atletico Mineiro on November 8, 2020. When you combine that with the fact that the Argentines are winless in their last six matches in all competitions, there is every reason to suggest that the clock will strike midnight on the Velez Sarsfield Cinderella story this week. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 62.81%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 13.14%.

The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.41%) and 2-1 (8.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (10.78%), while for a Velez Sarsfield win it was 0-1 (6.39%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Flamengo would win this match.

Result
FlamengoDrawVelez Sarsfield
62.81% (-0.055 -0.05) 24.04% (0.0079999999999991 0.01) 13.14% (0.044 0.04)
Both teams to score 35.96% (0.078000000000003 0.08)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
38.44% (0.042999999999999 0.04)61.56% (-0.043999999999997 -0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
18.59% (0.030999999999999 0.03)81.41% (-0.034000000000006 -0.03)
Flamengo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.49% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)19.5% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.61% (-0.0069999999999979 -0.01)51.38% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)
Velez Sarsfield Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
44.67% (0.1 0.1)55.32% (-0.101 -0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
11.92% (0.058 0.06)88.07% (-0.058999999999997 -0.06)
Score Analysis
    Flamengo 62.8%
    Velez Sarsfield 13.15%
    Draw 24.04%
FlamengoDrawVelez Sarsfield
1-0 @ 17.63% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
2-0 @ 14.41% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
2-1 @ 8.53% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
3-0 @ 7.85% (-0.015 -0.01)
3-1 @ 4.65% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
4-0 @ 3.21% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.9% (0.002 0)
3-2 @ 1.38% (0.0049999999999999 0)
5-0 @ 1.05% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 2.18%
Total : 62.8%
0-0 @ 10.78% (-0.020000000000001 -0.02)
1-1 @ 10.44% (0.02 0.02)
2-2 @ 2.53% (0.011 0.01)
Other @ 0.29%
Total : 24.04%
0-1 @ 6.39% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
1-2 @ 3.09% (0.013 0.01)
0-2 @ 1.89% (0.0090000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 1.78%
Total : 13.15%

How you voted: Flamengo vs Velez Sarsfield

Flamengo
88.9%
Draw
7.4%
Velez Sarsfield
3.7%
27
Head to Head
Sep 1, 2022 1.30am
Velez Sarsfield
0-4
Flamengo

Gomez (54'), de los Santos (68'), Seoane (90+2')
Pedro (32', 61', 83'), Ribeiro (45+1')
Barbosa (34'), Maia (67'), Luiz (74'), Pereira (84'), Pulgar (90')
May 28, 2021 1am
Flamengo
0-0
Velez Sarsfield

Gerson (21'), Henrique (32'), Caio (82')

Ortega (57'), Caseres (86')
Ortega (90+5')
Apr 21, 2021 1.30am
Velez Sarsfield
2-3
Flamengo
Janson (21', 54')
Caseres (27'), Martin Lucero (35'), Hoyos (60'), Almada (66'), Galdames (85')
Mancuello (86')
Arao (43'), Barbosa (62' pen.), De Arrascaeta (80')
Henrique (46'), Alves (55'), Batista de Souza (73'), Henrique (83'), Diego (90+3')
rhs 2.0
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