Each side are coming off emotional highs in their previous encounter, but Sao Paulo should have the edge because they have had a whole week to let their victory sink in and refocus on this game and the incentive of qualifying for one of the top two South American competitions next year is still a possibility.
After capturing their second Copa Sudamericana title over the past three seasons and with an opportunity to win the Copa do Brasil before the end of the year, there is not as much for El Paranaense to play for in the league right now with first place well beyond their reach, while they have already clinched a berth in the Copa Libertadores thanks to their triumph on Sunday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 53.42%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 20.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.01%) and 2-1 (9.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.05%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (7.98%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood.
