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Alaves logo
La Liga | Gameweek 10
Nov 22, 2020 at 8pm UK
Mendizorroza, Vitoria, Basque Country
Valencia logo

Alaves
2 - 2
Valencia

Navarro (2'), Perez (16' pen.)
Lejeune (37')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Vallejo (72'), Guillamon (77')
Guillamon (53')

Preview: Alaves vs. Valencia - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's La Liga clash between Alaves and Valencia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Valencia will be hoping to build on their impressive win over Real Madrid before the international break when they continue their La Liga campaign away to Alaves on Sunday night.

Los Che thumped Madrid 4-1 on home soil last time out to move into the top half of the table, while Alaves - currently 15th in the division - shared the points with Levante in their last fixture.


Match preview

Alaves manager Pablo Machin pictured in October 2020© Reuters

Alaves have won two, drawn three and lost four of their nine La Liga matches this season, with a total of nine points leaving them in 15th spot in the table, three points clear of the relegation zone.

The Basque outfit are playing in their fifth straight season at this level of football, but they finished 16th in 2019-20 and could well be in for another difficult campaign.

Pablo Machin's side will bring a three-game unbeaten run into this contest, though, having beaten Real Valladolid on October 25 before drawing 1-1 with both Barcelona and Levante.

The fact that they held Barca in their last home fixture will have boosted confidence among the players, but the team's goal struggles are a concern, having scored just seven times in their nine matches this term.

Valencia's Carlos Soler celebrates scoring against Real Madrid in La Liga on November 8, 2020© Reuters

Valencia, as mentioned, will enter Sunday's contest off the back of an excellent 4-1 home victory over Real Madrid before the international break, with Carlos Soler scoring a hat-trick against Zinedine Zidane's side.

There is no getting away from the fact that Los Che are going through a difficult period both on and off the field, and head coach Javi Gracia recently revealed that he wants to leave the club and is only remaining in his position due to the contractual obligation.

A record of three wins, two draws and four defeats from nine matches is an indication of their inconsistency, but they are only five points off the top four at this stage and could still enjoy a successful campaign.

The team's away form will be of concern to their supporters, though, losing five of their last six on their travels, although the run does include an impressive 1-0 victory at table-topping Real Sociedad on September 29.

Valencia have also won four of their last six meetings with Alaves in La Liga, but the points were shared in a 1-1 draw when they locked horns in the corresponding match last term.

Alaves La Liga form: LWLWDD

Valencia La Liga form: WLLLDW


Team News

Valencia's Yunus Musah in action with Real Madrid's Marcelo in La Liga on November 8, 2020© Reuters

Alaves will be without the services of Edgar Mendez due to the red card that the midfielder picked up against Levante last time out, while Pere Pons is still on the sidelines with a foot issue.

Burgui has returned a positive test for coronavirus and will also be unavailable, but Jota is back from suspension and should return to the starting XI on Sunday night.

There are not expected to be any major surprises in terms of team selection, with former Premier League duo Joselu and Lucas Perez set to continue in the final third.

As for Valencia, Jasper Cillessen is out with a muscular problem, but the squad is otherwise in good shape with Thierry Correia back from suspension and Mouctar Diakhaby available following an injury.

There is every chance that Gracia could select the same XI that started against Real Madrid before the international break, meaning that Daniel Wass would keep his spot at right-back despite Correira's return.

Maxi Gomez and Lee Kang-In are likely to again keep out Kevin Gameiro in the final third, while there should be another start for exciting youngster Yunus Musah in a wide area.

Alaves possible starting lineup:
Pacheco; Navarro, Laguardia, Lejeune, Duarte; Jota, Pina, Battaglia, Rioja; Joselu, Perez

Valencia possible starting lineup:
Domenech; Wass, Gabriel, Guillamon, Gaya; Musah, Soler, Racic, Cheryshev; Gomez, Kang-In


SM words green background

We say: Alaves 1-1 Valencia

Valencia will certainly have been boosted by their win over Real Madrid, but it is difficult to know what to expect from Los Che on a game-to-game basis. Alaves are capable of picking up positive results on their own patch, and we are finding it difficult to separate the two sides in this game, ultimately backing a low-scoring draw.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Valencia win with a probability of 46.97%. A draw had a probability of 28.2% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 24.84%.

The most likely scoreline for a Valencia win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.68%) and 1-2 (8.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.86%), while for an Alaves win it was 1-0 (9.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.


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Valencia's Yunus Musah in action with Real Madrid's Marcelo in La Liga on November 8, 2020
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Tables header RHS
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