Turkey and Hungary get their UEFA Nations League campaigns underway on Thursday evening aware that an opening defeat will leave them with an uphill task to earn promotion from Group B3.
Due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the international schedule, both teams will be playing their first game since November.
Match preview
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Ahead of Euro 2020, Turkey would have had concerns that their efforts would be undermined by an injury to Merih Demiral and persistent speculation regarding key players.
However, the year-long delay in theory has benefitted Senol Gunes now that he has the Juventus centre-back at his disposal and several other stars more settled at their current clubs.
Gunes will now hope that Turkey are in a position to extend a run of form which has seen them record nine wins and three draws from their last 13 outings in all competitions.
Although the Crescent Stars were not facing stiff opposition in each of those games, they recorded four points from their double-header with France, an indication that this group can only improve further in the coming years.
Nevertheless, the same can be said of a Hungary side who would have been bitterly disappointed after squandering an opportunity to qualify for Euro 2020.
Midway through their schedule, they were the favourites to edge out the likes of Wales and Slovakia for the runners-up spot behind group favourites Croatia.
However, defeats to each of those nations saw the Magyars miss out by two points, leaving Marco Rossi to focus on an improved effort in this competition.
With no player in the current squad older than 32 years of age, there will be optimism that the likes of Dominik Szoboszlai and Willi Orban can use their big-match temperament to guide this side into a new era.
After edging out Greece for promotion during the 2018-19 campaign, Hungary are competing in section B for the first time.
Turkey form (all competitions): WWWDDW
Hungary form (all competitions): LLLWLL
Team News
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Gunes is unlikely to make many alterations from the side which recorded a 1-1 draw against Iceland in November.
With his stock rising at Trabzonspor, Ugurcan Cakir is pushing to become number one for his country ahead of Mert Gunok.
Veteran Burak Yilmaz will likely retain his spot down the middle of the attack, with Enes Unal having to make do with a spot among the replacements.
While Hungary will line up with many of their regulars, Rossi must also consider handing rare starts or debuts in several positions.
Krisztian Simon or Benjamin Babati are in contention for an outing on one of the flanks, as is uncapped Bendeguz Bolla who can be deployed in any position down the right.
Turkey possible starting lineup:
Gunok; Celik, Demiral, Soyuncu, Meras; Tekdemir, Yokuslu, Tufan; Under, Yilmaz, Calhanoglu
Hungary possible starting lineup:
Gulacsi; Bese, Lang, Orban, Fiola; Patkai, A.Nagy; Simon, Szoboszlai, Sallai; Szalai
We say: Turkey 2-1 Hungary
This has all the makings of a closely-fought contest. Although Hungary tend to be underdogs against the bigger nations, they possess players who can make an impact in any game. Nevertheless, we are backing Turkey to prevail by the odd goal in three on Thursday.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Turkey win with a probability of 56.18%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Hungary had a probability of 19.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Turkey win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.18%) and 2-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.54%), while for a Hungary win it was 0-1 (7.03%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.
