Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 80.71%. A draw had a probability of 12.4% and a win for Boavista had a probability of 6.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.52%) and 2-1 (8.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.74%), while for a Boavista win it was 1-2 (2.16%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
Result | ||
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Boavista |
80.71% ( 0.47) | 12.36% ( -0.39) | 6.93% ( -0.09) |
Both teams to score 49.93% ( 1.35) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
70.28% ( 1.82) | 29.72% ( -1.82) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
49.14% ( 2.17) | 50.85% ( -2.17) |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
94.37% ( 0.45) | 5.62% ( -0.45) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
78.19% ( 1.28) | 21.8% ( -1.28) |
Boavista Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
52.91% ( 1.18) | 47.09% ( -1.19) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
17.44% ( 0.87) | 82.55% ( -0.88) |
Score Analysis |
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Boavista |
2-0 @ 10.96% ( -0.54) 3-0 @ 10.52% ( -0.22) 2-1 @ 8.26% ( -0.12) 3-1 @ 7.93% ( 0.1) 1-0 @ 7.62% ( -0.59) 4-0 @ 7.57% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 5.7% ( 0.22) 5-0 @ 4.36% ( 0.15) 5-1 @ 3.28% ( 0.21) 3-2 @ 2.98% ( 0.14) 4-2 @ 2.15% ( 0.15) 6-0 @ 2.09% ( 0.12) 6-1 @ 1.58% ( 0.14) 5-2 @ 1.24% ( 0.12) Other @ 4.46% Total : 80.7% | 1-1 @ 5.74% ( -0.24) 2-2 @ 3.11% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 2.65% ( -0.28) Other @ 0.86% Total : 12.36% | 1-2 @ 2.16% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 1.99% ( -0.14) Other @ 2.78% Total : 6.93% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 89 | 29 | 60 | 81 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 63 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 46 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 42 | 44 | -2 | 34 |
11 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 33 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
13 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 31 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 22 |
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