Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 41.41%. A win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 32.99% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.8%) and 2-0 (6.95%). The likeliest Gil Vicente win was 0-1 (8.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.13%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Rio Ave would win this match.
Result | ||
Rio Ave | Draw | Gil Vicente |
41.41% ( 0.03) | 25.6% ( 0) | 32.99% ( -0.03) |
Both teams to score 54.98% ( -0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.05% ( -0.02) | 48.95% ( 0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.96% ( -0.02) | 71.03% ( 0.02) |
Rio Ave Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.55% ( 0.01) | 23.45% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
42.54% ( 0.01) | 57.46% ( -0.01) |
Gil Vicente Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.82% ( -0.03) | 28.17% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.13% ( -0.04) | 63.86% ( 0.04) |
Score Analysis |
Rio Ave | Draw | Gil Vicente |
1-0 @ 9.58% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 8.8% ( 0) 2-0 @ 6.95% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 4.26% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.36% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.7% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.54% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.22% ( 0) 4-2 @ 0.98% Other @ 2.03% Total : 41.41% | 1-1 @ 12.13% 0-0 @ 6.61% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.58% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.14% ( -0) Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.59% | 0-1 @ 8.37% ( -0) 1-2 @ 7.69% ( -0) 0-2 @ 5.3% ( -0) 1-3 @ 3.25% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.35% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.24% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.03% ( -0) Other @ 2.76% Total : 32.99% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 89 | 29 | 60 | 81 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 63 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 46 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 42 | 44 | -2 | 34 |
11 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 33 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
13 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 31 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 22 |
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