Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 46.28%. A win for Luton Town had a probability of 29.53% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.88%) and 0-2 (7.33%). The likeliest Luton Town win was 2-1 (7.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Luton Town would win this match.
Result | ||
Luton Town | Draw | Newcastle United |
29.53% ( 0.81) | 24.18% ( 0.28) | 46.28% ( -1.09) |
Both teams to score 58.14% ( -0.41) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.91% ( -0.78) | 44.09% ( 0.78) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.53% ( -0.77) | 66.47% ( 0.76) |
Luton Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.96% ( 0.16) | 28.03% ( -0.16) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.31% ( 0.21) | 63.69% ( -0.21) |
Newcastle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.8% ( -0.75) | 19.2% ( 0.75) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.11% ( -1.26) | 50.88% ( 1.25) |
Score Analysis |
Luton Town | Draw | Newcastle United |
2-1 @ 7.18% ( 0.14) 1-0 @ 6.84% ( 0.26) 2-0 @ 4.35% ( 0.18) 3-1 @ 3.05% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 2.51% 3-0 @ 1.85% ( 0.09) 4-1 @ 0.97% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.78% Total : 29.53% | 1-1 @ 11.29% ( 0.16) 2-2 @ 5.93% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 5.38% ( 0.18) 3-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.18% | 1-2 @ 9.32% ( -0.09) 0-1 @ 8.88% ( 0.09) 0-2 @ 7.33% ( -0.1) 1-3 @ 5.13% ( -0.17) 0-3 @ 4.03% ( -0.16) 2-3 @ 3.26% ( -0.09) 1-4 @ 2.12% ( -0.12) 0-4 @ 1.66% ( -0.11) 2-4 @ 1.35% ( -0.07) Other @ 3.2% Total : 46.28% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Arsenal | 36 | 26 | 5 | 5 | 88 | 28 | 60 | 83 |
2 | Manchester CityMan City | 35 | 25 | 7 | 3 | 87 | 33 | 54 | 82 |
3 | Liverpool | 36 | 23 | 9 | 4 | 81 | 38 | 43 | 78 |
4 | Aston Villa | 36 | 20 | 7 | 9 | 73 | 53 | 20 | 67 |
5 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 35 | 18 | 6 | 11 | 69 | 58 | 11 | 60 |
6 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 35 | 17 | 5 | 13 | 78 | 56 | 22 | 56 |
7 | Chelsea | 35 | 15 | 9 | 11 | 70 | 59 | 11 | 54 |
8 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 35 | 16 | 6 | 13 | 52 | 55 | -3 | 54 |
9 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 36 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 56 | 70 | -14 | 49 |
10 | Bournemouth | 36 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 52 | 63 | -11 | 48 |
11 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 35 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 53 | 57 | -4 | 47 |
12 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 36 | 13 | 7 | 16 | 49 | 60 | -11 | 46 |
13 | Fulham | 36 | 12 | 8 | 16 | 51 | 55 | -4 | 44 |
14 | Crystal Palace | 36 | 11 | 10 | 15 | 49 | 57 | -8 | 43 |
15 | Everton | 36 | 12 | 9 | 15 | 38 | 49 | -11 | 37 |
16 | Brentford | 36 | 9 | 9 | 18 | 52 | 60 | -8 | 36 |
17 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 36 | 8 | 9 | 19 | 45 | 63 | -18 | 29 |
18 | Luton TownLuton | 36 | 6 | 8 | 22 | 49 | 78 | -29 | 26 |
19 | Burnley | 36 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 39 | 74 | -35 | 24 |
R | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 36 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 35 | 100 | -65 | 16 |
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