Following their crucial weekend win at a major Scudetto rival, Napoli welcome lowly Spezia to Stadio Maradona on Wednesday for their final game of 2021.
Beating Milan at San Siro rejuvenates the Partenopei's title challenge ahead of the halfway point in Serie A, while their struggling visitors picked up just their second point in six games on Monday.
Match preview
© Reuters
Amid a disruptive injury crisis at the club, Napoli's pursuit of a first Scudetto win since the Diego Maradona era has faltered in recent weeks, so a hard-fought victory at fellow contenders Milan on Sunday brought some sweet relief for Luciano Spalletti's side.
Promoted to the league lineup largely as a result of others' enforced absences, midfielder Eljif Elmas headed home what turned out to be the decisive goal in the fifth minute on a cold Sunday night at San Siro.
The former league leaders, who started the campaign under new coach Spalletti in scintillating form, were still missing a number of first-team regulars, but survived a late Milan 'equaliser' - subsequently ruled out by the VAR - to earn a win which keeps them four points behind Inter at the Serie A summit.
After successive home defeats at the hands of Atalanta and Empoli, then, Napoli should be in a good frame of mind to complete the calendar year against ailing opponents this week, and if their main men can recover over the brief winter break, they remain in the mix for trophies at home and abroad.
Following a vital Europa League victory over Leicester City earlier this month, Spalletti and company can look forward to a glamour tie with Barcelona early in 2022 - a year which they kick off with a trip to Turin, where they meet old rivals Juventus on January 6.
Undoubtedly, they will first be banking on entering the mid-season interval with another three points added to their tally at the Maradona, where they have conceded just six league goals.
© Reuters
Recent events aside, Napoli have enjoyed one of their best-ever years on home soil during 2021, but by contrast, Spezia have been in woeful form away from their Ligurian headquarters - losing each of their last six away games.
Indeed, the Aquilotti have come away empty-handed from five of their last seven outings all told, including last week's Coppa Italia humbling at the hands of Serie B side Lecce.
By way of explanation for such a dire run, head coach Thiago Motta has cited a testing fixture list of late, with his team having tackled Inter, Atalanta, Roma and Sassuolo since mid-November.
Spezia most recently faced Serie A's surprise package on Monday evening, when they took lead at home to Empoli through Riccardo Marchizza's own goal against his old club, before Dimitrios Nikolaou later helped the ball into his own net at the other end to leave the hosts with only a point.
That fortuitous breakthrough at Stadio Alberto Picco at least ended nearly 300 minutes of action without finding the opposition net, which was a particular cause for concern for Motta as his team hold the second-worst defensive record in Serie A.
Therefore, the odds are stacked against the relegation battlers ahead of their journey south, but memories of a shock 2-1 win at the Maradona last January - in the club's debut top-flight campaign - will offer hope that a Christmas miracle can be achieved.
- L
- W
- D
- L
- L
- W
- W
- D
- L
- W
- L
- W
- L
- L
- L
- D
- L
- D
- L
- L
- D
- L
- L
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Making their triumph in Milan all the more impressive, Napoli's injury issues are yet resolved, and several star names are not due back until after the mid-season break.
Midfield creator Fabian Ruiz and defensive mainstay Kalidou Koulibaly have been undergoing individual training and are not fit to feature this week, while top scorer Victor Osimhen is out of action for some time yet due to a broken cheekbone. Only just back in contention after injury, captain Lorenzo Insigne has now tested positive for COVID-19.
The hosts do have Stanislav Lobotka back in the fold, though, and he will contend with Diego Demme for a place in central midfield alongside Andre-Frank Anguissa. Up front, Dries Mertens and Andrea Petagna offer very different options to deputise for Osimhen.
Meanwhile, Spezia are experiencing fewer injury problems, but have a self-inflicted issue to sort out inside the camp, as last season's top scorer M'Bala Nzola - who has struggled to recreate such form this term - was recently left out for disciplinary reasons, and then demonstrated dissent at being substituted on Monday.
The Angola international may therefore find himself dropped, allowing David Strelec to join Rey Manaj up front in Thiago Motta's recently favoured 3-5-2.
Other attacking options, Daniele Verde and Eddie Salcedo, are expected to miss out due to injury, while Jacopo Sala is once again absent from midfield with a calf problem.
Napoli possible starting lineup:
Ospina; Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Jesus, Rui; Lobotka, Anguissa; Politano, Zielinski, Elmas; Mertens
Spezia possible starting lineup:
Provedel; Amian, Erlic, Nikolaou; Gyasi, Kovalenko, Bourabia, Maggiore, Reca; Strelec, Manaj
We say: Napoli 2-0 Spezia
Recent setbacks in Naples should ensure the home side do not have complacency to contend with on Wednesday, and a thoroughly professional approach can help them end the year with successive Serie A wins.
Certainly a weaker team without some integral cogs in Spalletti's machine, Napoli will still be able to exploit Spezia's numerous failings at the back, and despite fielding an improvised back four, they remain one of the best defensive sides in the league.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 79.89%. A draw had a probability of 12.9% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 7.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.58%) and 2-1 (8.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.03%), while for a Spezia win it was 1-2 (2.24%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.
