Ligue 1 | Gameweek 28
Mar 18, 2023 at 4pm UK
Stadium Municipal
We said: Toulouse 1-1 Lille
A closely-fought contest between two inconsistent teams is set to be played out at Stadium TFC, and although Lille will be regarded as slight favourites to come out on top, we believe that Toulouse will follow up last weekend's win with a hard-fought point on home soil.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 43.33%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 33.56% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.8%) and 0-2 (5.9%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 2-1 (7.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.23%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.
| Result |
| Toulouse | Draw | Lille |
33.56% ( 0.01) | 23.11% ( -0.06) | 43.33% ( 0.06) |
| Both teams to score 64.06% ( 0.24) |
| 62.82% ( 0.31) | 37.18% ( -0.31) |
| 40.62% ( 0.34) | 59.38% ( -0.33) |
| 77.78% ( 0.15) | 22.22% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 44.36% ( 0.22) | 55.64% ( -0.22) |
| 82.36% ( 0.15) | 17.64% ( -0.15) |
