Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 86.96%. A draw had a probability of 9% and a win for Troyes had a probability of 4.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 3-0 with a probability of 11.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.89%) and 4-0 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.2%), while for a Troyes win it was 1-2 (1.32%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Paris Saint-Germain would win this match.
Result | ||
Paris Saint-Germain | Draw | Troyes |
86.96% ( 1.15) | 8.96% ( -0.76) | 4.07% ( -0.38) |
Both teams to score 44.85% ( 0.61) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
74.46% ( 2.27) | 25.54% ( -2.27) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
54.38% ( 2.88) | 45.62% ( -2.88) |
Paris Saint-Germain Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
96.15% ( 0.56) | 3.85% ( -0.56) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
83.61% ( 1.77) | 16.39% ( -1.77) |
Troyes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
46.65% ( 0.36) | 53.35% ( -0.36) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
13.13% ( 0.23) | 86.87% ( -0.23) |
Score Analysis |
Paris Saint-Germain | Draw | Troyes |
3-0 @ 11.82% ( -0.18) 2-0 @ 10.89% ( -0.64) 4-0 @ 9.63% ( 0.26) 3-1 @ 7.43% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 6.85% ( -0.32) 1-0 @ 6.69% ( -0.7) 5-0 @ 6.27% ( 0.42) 4-1 @ 6.05% ( 0.23) 5-1 @ 3.94% ( 0.3) 6-0 @ 3.41% ( 0.36) 3-2 @ 2.34% ( 0.02) 6-1 @ 2.14% ( 0.25) 4-2 @ 1.9% ( 0.09) 7-0 @ 1.59% ( 0.23) 5-2 @ 1.24% ( 0.11) 7-1 @ 1% ( 0.15) Other @ 3.77% Total : 86.95% | 1-1 @ 4.2% ( -0.39) 2-2 @ 2.15% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 2.05% ( -0.31) Other @ 0.56% Total : 8.96% | 1-2 @ 1.32% ( -0.11) 0-1 @ 1.29% ( -0.18) Other @ 1.46% Total : 4.07% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 31 | 20 | 10 | 1 | 76 | 29 | 47 | 70 |
2 | MonacoMonaco | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 62 | 42 | 20 | 61 |
3 | Brest | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 49 | 33 | 16 | 57 |
4 | Lille | 32 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 48 | 31 | 17 | 55 |
5 | Nice | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 36 | 25 | 11 | 51 |
6 | Lens | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 42 | 34 | 8 | 49 |
7 | Lyon | 32 | 14 | 5 | 13 | 46 | 54 | -8 | 47 |
8 | Rennes | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 51 | 43 | 8 | 45 |
9 | Marseille | 31 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 47 | 38 | 9 | 44 |
10 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 40 |
11 | Toulouse | 32 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 39 | 42 | -3 | 40 |
12 | Reims | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 40 |
13 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 35 | 47 | -12 | 36 |
14 | NantesNantes | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 29 | 49 | -20 | 33 |
15 | Le HavreLe Havre | 32 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 33 | 42 | -9 | 32 |
16 | Metz | 32 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 34 | 54 | -20 | 29 |
17 | Lorient | 32 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 37 | 63 | -26 | 26 |
18 | Clermont | 32 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 26 | 54 | -28 | 25 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |