Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monaco win with a probability of 66.12%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Auxerre had a probability of 15.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.81%) and 1-0 (8.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.73%), while for an Auxerre win it was 1-2 (4.26%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Monaco would win this match.
Result | ||
Monaco | Draw | Auxerre |
66.12% ( 0.13) | 18.84% ( -0.06) | 15.04% ( -0.07) |
Both teams to score 55.73% ( 0.06) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
62.52% ( 0.16) | 37.49% ( -0.15) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
40.29% ( 0.17) | 59.71% ( -0.16) |
Monaco Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
89.45% ( 0.08) | 10.55% ( -0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
65.72% ( 0.17) | 34.29% ( -0.17) |
Auxerre Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.3% ( 0.01) | 37.7% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.52% ( 0.01) | 74.48% ( -0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Monaco | Draw | Auxerre |
2-0 @ 10.06% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.81% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 8.95% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 7.54% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 7.36% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 4.24% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 4.14% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 3.59% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 2.02% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.91% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.86% ( 0.02) 5-2 @ 0.91% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.76% Total : 66.12% | 1-1 @ 8.73% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 4.79% ( -0) 0-0 @ 3.98% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 1.17% ( 0) Other @ 0.18% Total : 18.84% | 1-2 @ 4.26% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 3.88% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 1.89% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.56% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.07% Total : 15.05% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 31 | 20 | 10 | 1 | 76 | 29 | 47 | 70 |
2 | MonacoMonaco | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 62 | 42 | 20 | 61 |
3 | Brest | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 50 | 34 | 16 | 58 |
4 | Lille | 32 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 48 | 31 | 17 | 55 |
5 | Nice | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 37 | 25 | 12 | 54 |
6 | Lens | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 42 | 34 | 8 | 49 |
7 | Lyon | 32 | 14 | 5 | 13 | 46 | 54 | -8 | 47 |
8 | Rennes | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 51 | 43 | 8 | 45 |
9 | Marseille | 31 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 47 | 38 | 9 | 44 |
10 | Reims | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 39 | 46 | -7 | 41 |
11 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 40 |
12 | Toulouse | 32 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 39 | 42 | -3 | 40 |
13 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 35 | 47 | -12 | 36 |
14 | NantesNantes | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 29 | 49 | -20 | 33 |
15 | Le HavreLe Havre | 33 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 32 |
16 | Metz | 32 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 34 | 54 | -20 | 29 |
17 | Lorient | 32 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 37 | 63 | -26 | 26 |
18 | Clermont | 32 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 26 | 54 | -28 | 25 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |