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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 56.56%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 19.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.23%) and 2-1 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.48%), while for a Hartlepool United win it was 0-1 (6.94%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Carlisle United would win this match.
Result | ||
Carlisle United | Draw | Hartlepool United |
56.56% ( 0.08) | 24.38% ( 0) | 19.06% ( -0.08) |
Both teams to score 46.17% ( -0.14) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
45.64% ( -0.12) | 54.36% ( 0.12) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
24.26% ( -0.1) | 75.74% ( 0.1) |
Carlisle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.9% ( -0.01) | 19.1% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.27% ( -0.02) | 50.73% ( 0.02) |
Hartlepool United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
57.08% ( -0.17) | 42.92% ( 0.17) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
20.78% ( -0.14) | 79.22% ( 0.14) |
Score Analysis |
Carlisle United | Draw | Hartlepool United |
1-0 @ 13.57% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 11.23% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 9.5% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 6.2% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 5.24% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 2.57% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.22% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.17% ( -0) 4-2 @ 0.92% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.94% Total : 56.55% | 1-1 @ 11.48% 0-0 @ 8.2% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 4.02% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.68% Total : 24.38% | 0-1 @ 6.94% 1-2 @ 4.86% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 2.93% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.37% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.13% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.84% Total : 19.06% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Stockport CountyStockport | 46 | 27 | 11 | 8 | 96 | 48 | 48 | 92 |
P | Wrexham | 46 | 26 | 10 | 10 | 89 | 52 | 37 | 88 |
P | Mansfield TownMansfield | 46 | 24 | 14 | 8 | 90 | 47 | 43 | 86 |
4 | MK Dons | 46 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 83 | 68 | 15 | 78 |
5 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 46 | 21 | 8 | 17 | 73 | 68 | 5 | 71 |
6 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 69 | 65 | 4 | 71 |
7 | Crawley TownCrawley | 46 | 21 | 7 | 18 | 73 | 67 | 6 | 70 |
8 | BarrowBarrow | 46 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 62 | 56 | 6 | 69 |
9 | Bradford CityBradford | 46 | 19 | 12 | 15 | 61 | 59 | 2 | 69 |
10 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 64 | 51 | 13 | 65 |
11 | Walsall | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 69 | 73 | -4 | 65 |
12 | Gillingham | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 46 | 57 | -11 | 64 |
13 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 46 | 17 | 12 | 17 | 60 | 69 | -9 | 63 |
14 | Notts County | 46 | 18 | 7 | 21 | 89 | 86 | 3 | 61 |
15 | Morecambe | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 67 | 81 | -14 | 58 |
16 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 46 | 17 | 6 | 23 | 67 | 70 | -3 | 57 |
17 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 63 | 71 | -8 | 57 |
18 | Newport CountyNewport | 46 | 16 | 7 | 23 | 62 | 76 | -14 | 55 |
19 | Swindon TownSwindon | 46 | 14 | 12 | 20 | 77 | 83 | -6 | 54 |
20 | Salford City | 46 | 13 | 12 | 21 | 66 | 82 | -16 | 51 |
21 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 11 | 16 | 19 | 57 | 74 | -17 | 49 |
22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 46 | 11 | 12 | 23 | 59 | 80 | -21 | 45 |
R | Sutton UnitedSutton | 46 | 9 | 15 | 22 | 59 | 84 | -25 | 42 |
R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 46 | 11 | 9 | 26 | 44 | 78 | -34 | 42 |
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