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AFC Wimbledon
Accrington Stanley
Barrow
Bradford City
Colchester United
Crawley Town
Crewe Alexandra
Doncaster Rovers
Forest Green Rovers
Gillingham
Grimsby Town
Harrogate Town
MK Dons
Mansfield Town
Morecambe
Newport County
Notts County
Salford City
Stockport County
Sutton United
Swindon Town
Tranmere Rovers
Walsall
Wrexham AFC
Carlisle United
League Two | 2nd Leg
May 20, 2023 at 3pm UK
Brunton Park
Bradford City

Carlisle
3 - 1
Bradford

Halliday (21' og.), Guy (98'), Barclay (112')
Armer (6'), Garner (60'), Guy (96')
FT
(aet)
Derbyshire (106')
Clayton (42')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League Two clash between Carlisle United and Bradford City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Bradford 1-0 Carlisle
Sunday, May 14 at 7pm in League Two
Last Game: Bradford 1-0 Carlisle
Sunday, May 14 at 7pm in League Two

We say: Carlisle United 1-1 Bradford City (Bradford win 2-1 on aggregate)

Carlisle will give it their absolute all with a place in the playoff final on the line, but Bradford have shown that they know how to get the job done away from home all season. As such, we expect the visitors to pick up a draw, which will be enough to book their place at Wembley on May 28th. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 36.62%. A win for Bradford City had a probability of 35.32% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.8%) and 2-0 (6.74%). The likeliest Bradford City win was 0-1 (11.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Carlisle United would win this match.

Result
Carlisle UnitedDrawBradford City
36.62% (0.195 0.2) 28.06% (0.0079999999999991 0.01) 35.32% (-0.2 -0.2)
Both teams to score 47.59% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
41.5% (-0.031999999999996 -0.03)58.5% (0.036000000000001 0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
20.92% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)79.08% (0.028000000000006 0.03)
Carlisle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.4% (0.10600000000001 0.11)30.6% (-0.101 -0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.17% (0.124 0.12)66.84% (-0.119 -0.12)
Bradford City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.58% (-0.145 -0.14)31.42% (0.148 0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.2% (-0.168 -0.17)67.8% (0.172 0.17)
Score Analysis
    Carlisle United 36.61%
    Bradford City 35.32%
    Draw 28.06%
Carlisle UnitedDrawBradford City
1-0 @ 11.38% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
2-1 @ 7.8% (0.023000000000001 0.02)
2-0 @ 6.74% (0.047 0.05)
3-1 @ 3.08% (0.017 0.02)
3-0 @ 2.66% (0.026 0.03)
3-2 @ 1.78% (0.0029999999999999 0)
4-1 @ 0.91% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 2.25%
Total : 36.61%
1-1 @ 13.18% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 9.62% (0.013 0.01)
2-2 @ 4.52% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 0.75%
Total : 28.06%
0-1 @ 11.13% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
1-2 @ 7.63% (-0.03 -0.03)
0-2 @ 6.44% (-0.044 -0.04)
1-3 @ 2.94% (-0.024 -0.02)
0-3 @ 2.49% (-0.027 -0.03)
2-3 @ 1.74% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 2.94%
Total : 35.32%

How you voted: Carlisle vs Bradford

Carlisle United
71.4%
Draw
14.3%
Bradford City
14.3%
14
Head to Head
May 14, 2023 7pm
Mar 21, 2023 7.45pm
gameweek 28
Bradford
0-0
Carlisle

Oliver (79'), Oliver (79+79')

Moxon (37'), Barclay (56'), Armer (90+5')
Dec 26, 2022 3pm
May 7, 2022 3pm
gameweek 46
Bradford
2-0
Carlisle
Angol (13'), Walker (69')
Cooke (79')

Whelan (56'), Armer (67'), Dickenson (80'), Omotoye (86')
Jan 8, 2022 3pm
gameweek 22
Carlisle
2-0
Bradford
Gibson (45'), Patrick (87')

Songo'o (64'), Angol (90+1'), Watt (90+4')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CStockport CountyStockport462711896484892
4MK Dons462391483681578
5Doncaster RoversDoncaster46218177368571
6Crewe AlexandraCrewe461914136965471
7Crawley TownCrawley46217187367670
8BarrowBarrow461815136256669
9Bradford CityBradford461912156159269
10AFC Wimbledon4617141564511365
11Walsall461811176973-465
12Gillingham461810184657-1164
13Harrogate TownHarrogate461712176069-963
14Notts County46187218986361
15Morecambe461710196781-1458
16Tranmere RoversTranmere46176236770-357
17Accrington StanleyAccrington46169216371-857
18Newport CountyNewport46167236276-1455
19Swindon TownSwindon461412207783-654
20Salford City461312216682-1651
21Grimsby Town461116195774-1749
22Colchester UnitedColchester461112235980-2145
RSutton UnitedSutton46915225984-2542
RForest Green RoversForest Green46119264478-3442


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