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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 56.97%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Morecambe had a probability of 19.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.75%) and 1-2 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.21%), while for a Morecambe win it was 1-0 (6.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.
Result | ||
Morecambe | Draw | Derby County |
19.43% ( 0.03) | 23.6% ( 0.02) | 56.97% ( -0.05) |
Both teams to score 48.98% ( -0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.09% ( -0.05) | 50.91% ( 0.06) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.21% ( -0.05) | 72.79% ( 0.05) |
Morecambe Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
59.49% ( 0) | 40.51% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
22.89% ( 0) | 77.11% ( 0) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.33% ( -0.04) | 17.67% ( 0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
51.71% ( -0.07) | 48.29% ( 0.07) |
Score Analysis |
Morecambe | Draw | Derby County |
1-0 @ 6.47% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 5.07% ( 0) 2-0 @ 2.92% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 1.53% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.32% Other @ 2.13% Total : 19.43% | 1-1 @ 11.21% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.16% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.39% ( -0) Other @ 0.84% Total : 23.6% | 0-1 @ 12.4% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 10.75% 1-2 @ 9.72% ( -0) 0-3 @ 6.21% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 5.62% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 2.69% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.54% ( -0) 1-4 @ 2.43% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.1% ( -0) 0-5 @ 0.93% ( -0) Other @ 2.57% Total : 56.96% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Portsmouth | 46 | 28 | 13 | 5 | 78 | 41 | 37 | 97 |
P | Derby CountyDerby | 46 | 28 | 8 | 10 | 78 | 37 | 41 | 92 |
3 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 46 | 25 | 12 | 9 | 86 | 51 | 35 | 87 |
4 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 46 | 25 | 9 | 12 | 89 | 61 | 28 | 84 |
5 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 46 | 22 | 11 | 13 | 79 | 56 | 23 | 77 |
6 | Barnsley | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 82 | 64 | 18 | 76 |
7 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 46 | 20 | 14 | 12 | 65 | 40 | 25 | 74 |
8 | Blackpool | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 65 | 48 | 17 | 73 |
9 | Stevenage | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 57 | 46 | 11 | 71 |
10 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 60 | 55 | 5 | 65 |
11 | Leyton Orient | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 53 | 55 | -2 | 65 |
12 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 46 | 20 | 10 | 16 | 63 | 56 | 7 | 62 |
13 | Exeter CityExeter | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 46 | 61 | -15 | 61 |
14 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 46 | 17 | 9 | 20 | 57 | 66 | -9 | 60 |
15 | Bristol Rovers | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 52 | 68 | -16 | 57 |
16 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 46 | 11 | 20 | 15 | 64 | 65 | -1 | 53 |
17 | Reading | 46 | 16 | 11 | 19 | 68 | 70 | -2 | 53 |
18 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 46 | 12 | 12 | 22 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 48 |
19 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 46 | 13 | 9 | 24 | 35 | 67 | -32 | 48 |
20 | Burton Albion | 46 | 12 | 10 | 24 | 39 | 67 | -28 | 46 |
R | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 46 | 12 | 8 | 26 | 41 | 65 | -24 | 44 |
R | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 46 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 49 | 72 | -23 | 43 |
R | Port Vale | 46 | 10 | 11 | 25 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 41 |
R | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 7 | 9 | 30 | 41 | 81 | -40 | 30 |
> League One Full Table |