Promotion-chasing Rotherham United play host to Ipswich Town on Saturday afternoon looking to end a run of three successive defeats in League One.
At a time when the Millers need a win to keep pace in the race for the top two, only a victory will do for Ipswich if they want to retain any genuine hope of reaching the playoffs.
Match preview
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Even with Rotherham being on their worst run of form of the season, the expectation remains that they will eventually get over the line where promotion is concerned.
However, Tuesday's 3-0 reverse at Portsmouth highlighted that the Millers seem to be running out of steam, not helped by an EFL Trophy run which only concluded earlier this month.
Seven goals have been conceded without reply against Shrewsbury Town, Charlton Athletic and Portsmouth, effectively handing MK Dons the momentum and advantage in the race to finish behind Wigan Athletic.
Paul Warne's side had previously been excellent at the New York Stadium, but three of their five defeats at home this season have come since the start of March.
Leading marksman Michael Smith, who has 18 strikes to his name in League One, has gone six matches in all competitions without finding the back of the net.
As far as Ipswich are concerned, they remain very much on an upward trajectory under Kieran McKenna, who has posted 10 wins and just three defeats in 19 matches.
Nevertheless, collecting just six points from a possible 15 more recently means that the Tractor Boys are likely to be playing third-tier football once again in 2022-23.
As well as the gap to sixth-placed Sunderland standing at eight points, the Black Cats also possess a game in hand, and Ipswich find themselves requiring four straight wins to keep their hopes alive.
Ipswich remain strong defensively, conceding just three goals in seven matches, but two of those efforts came in the final six minutes of different games, something which will not have gone unnoticed by Rotherham.
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Team News
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Warne will inevitably make a number of changes to his Rotherham starting lineup, one likely to be a recall for Freddie Ladapo.
Oliver Rathbone should be restored to the centre of the pitch as a replacement for Jamie Lindsay, while Rarmani Edmonds-Green could return in defence.
However, Angus MacDonald remains absent for the Millers as he serves the final game of a three-man suspension.
Ipswich also have a ban to contend with after Cameron Burgess was dismissed for two yellow cards during the 1-1 draw at Shrewsbury Town.
With George Edmundson still sidelined with an ankle injury, Dominic Thompson may deputise on the left-hand side of the back three.
Macauley Bonne could be given the nod ahead of Sone Aluko in the final third.
Rotherham United possible starting lineup:
Johansson; Ihiekwe, Wood, Edmonds-Green; Ogbene, Rathbone, Barlaser, Wiles, Osei-Tutu; Smith, Ladapo
Ipswich Town possible starting lineup:
Walton; Donacien, Woolfenden, Thompson; Burns, Morsy, Bakinson, Penney; Chaplin, Norwood, Aluko
We say: Rotherham United 1-2 Ipswich Town
With both teams in somewhat of a rut at a crucial period of the campaign, we do not expect a match full of quality. However, with Rotherham's confidence dwindling by the game, Ipswich appear to be favourites to edge this contest by the odd goal in three.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rotherham United win with a probability of 42.11%. A win for Ipswich Town had a probability of 32.03% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rotherham United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.84%) and 2-0 (7.24%). The likeliest Ipswich Town win was 0-1 (8.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Rotherham United in this match.
