The Bundesliga's return to action at the weekend includes a crucial relegation clash between Greuther Furth and Stuttgart on Saturday.
The hosts remain cut adrift from the rest at the bottom of the table so know a win is a must if they are to stand any chance of avoiding the drop, whilst the visitors will be looking to begin 2022 brighter than they finished 2021 in their own quest to avoid relegation.
Match preview
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Having picked up just five points from their opening 17 Bundesliga games at this stage, Greuther still appear destined for an immediate return to the 2.Bundesliga despite a slight pick up in form prior to the winter break.
Following one point from the first 14 fixtures, Stefan Leitl's side did at least manage to record four points from their final three games of 2021.
Although the 1-0 win over Union Berlin and 0-0 draw with Augsburg, with a 3-0 defeat at Borussia Dortmund sandwiched in between, have not changed the outlook too drastically at the foot of the German top flight, the results do at least provide Saturday's hosts with a glimmer of hope.
Picking up all three points against their fellow strugglers at the weekend is an absolute must, but following those points being picked up in each of their last two home encounters, as well as back-to-back clean sheets being recorded too, the Cloverleaves will at least head into the encounter with some confidence for the first time this season.
After a memorable first half of 2021 saw Greuther achieve an unexpected promotion to the Bundesliga, the second half of the calendar year was nothing short of miserable, but winning on Saturday could provide the minnows with a benchmark for a hopeful 2022 ahead.
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Meanwhile, the visitors failed to enjoy a much better finish to last year themselves, with Stuttgart finishing 2021 in the relegation playoff spot of 16th.
Although 12 points separate the visitors from their opponents ahead of the crucial encounter, Pellegrino Matarazzo's men find themselves just a single point above Arminia Bielefeld in the other automatic relegation position.
Like their hosts, Die Roten too enjoyed a successful opening to the last calendar year, as Matarazzo led his side to a comfortable and impressive ninth-placed finish on their return to the Bundesliga, before enduring a difficult start to the current campaign in the last few months.
A brief three-game spell at the end of November and beginning of December did provide some hope of a revival at Stuttgart, where they recorded victories over Mainz 05 and Wolfsburg, and a draw against Hertha Berlin.
However, following that, Saturday's visitors finished the year with back-to-back defeats without scoring a goal - 5-0 at home to Bayern Munich and 1-0 at FC Koln - with Matarazzo and his side having plenty of time to prepare their response over the three-week winter break.
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Team News
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Greuther have been boosted by the return of defender Nick Viergever ahead of the weekend's crucial clash, although he may have to settle for a place on the bench following the solid defensive displays prior to the break.
Jessic Ngankam, Marius Funk and Robin Kehr all remain long-term absentees with serious knee injuries, whilst Justin Hoogma will sit out after contracting COVID-19.
As for the visitors, they will welcome the return of last season's top goalscorer Sasa Kalajdzic to their ranks, after the Austrian striker has been missing since matchday two.
He may not be fit enough to play the whole encounter, but could well start up front in place of Omar Marmoush, who misses out due to international duty at AFCON.
Mohamed Sankoh and Erik Thommy miss out through injury, whilst Wahid Faghir, Naouirou Ahamada, Silas Katompa Mvumpa, Konstantinos Mavropanos and Mateo Klimowicz are all missing due to COVID-19.
Greuther Furth possible starting lineup:
Burchert; Meyerhofer, Griesbeck, Bauer, Willems; Seguin, Christiansen, Tillman; Nielsen; Leweling, Hrgota
Stuttgart possible starting lineup:
Muller; Anton, Ito, Kempf; Massimo, Endo, Mangala, Sosa; Fuhrich, Forster; Kalajdzic
We say: Greuther Furth 0-1 Stuttgart
This is likely to be a tight and nervy encounter on Saturday, with so much riding on the outcome and both sides in desperate need for the win.
As a result, we cannot see many goals being scored in this one, but are predicting Stuttgart to just about edge out their opponents thanks to the return of their key man up front against a Greuther side sorely lacking in quality.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stuttgart win with a probability of 37.49%. A win for Greuther Furth had a probability of 37.37% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stuttgart win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.37%) and 0-2 (5.92%). The likeliest Greuther Furth win was 2-1 (8.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.82%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.
