Tondela travel to Famalicao on Monday evening knowing that three points should be enough to secure their Primeira Liga status for another 12 months.
Meanwhile, Famalicao head into this contest sitting three points clear of the relegation zone after their recent return to form.
Match preview
© Reuters
When Ivo Vieira was appointed as the new Famalicao boss last month, the 45-year-old was given the task of trying to galvanise a team which were struggling for goals and appeared destined for relegation.
However, Vieira has already guided his new team to 11 points from six matches, scoring 12 goals and earning draws against the likes of Braga and Sporting Lisbon.
Famalicao have much work ahead if they want to secure a third successive season in the top flight, but it would now come as a surprise if they do not get over the line in the coming weeks.
Anderson Silva and Ivan Jaime have been regular contributors on the scoresheet under Vieira, while Wolverhampton Wanderers loanee Leonardo Campana finally netted his first goal of the season in Thursday's 3-0 victory at Gil Vicente.
Opponents Tondela would have been content with avoiding relegation having ended the last campaign down in 14th position.
A run of three wins in four matches has changed their targets, the club now having the opportunity to finish as high as sixth with a strong end to the season.
Former Liverpool assistant Pako Ayestaran has worked wonders with this group of players, although he will acknowledge that a couple of negative results will see the Auriverdes dragged back into a scrap to avoid the drop.
Mario Gonzalez has been the difference maker since the middle of March, contributing six goals and one assist from his last five appearances.
Tondela's last five triumphs in Portugal's top flight have all been by a one-goal margin, the most recent coming against bottom-of-the-table outfit Nacional on Thursday.
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Team News
Having scored as substitutes against Gil Vicente, Jaime and Campana could be rewarded with a place in the Famalicao starting lineup.
Barring any late fitness issues, the rest of the team could remain the same after their strong end to the game in midweek.
Ayestaran will almost certainly make a couple of changes to his Gil Vicente side after their comeback win versus Nacional.
Salvador Agra and Tiago Almeida could both be included in the team, taking the place of Roberto Olabe and Bebeto respectively.
Famalicao possible starting lineup:
Junior; Figueiras, Riccieli, Willian, Vinagre; Jamie, Assuncao, Pepe; Dias, Campana, Rodrigues
Tondela possible starting lineup:
Trigueira; Almeida, Tavares, Alves, Ferreira; Augusto, Grau, Barbosa; Murillo, Gonzalez, Agra
We say: Famalicao 1-1 Tondela
While both teams have reasons to push for all three points on Monday, they will also be wary of suffering a defeat which could cost them further down the line; that could lead to a draw being played out, potentially with the visitors finding a late equaliser.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 47.63%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.55%) and 2-1 (8.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.71%), while for a Tondela win it was 0-1 (9.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.
