Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage
Oct 14, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Comunale San Nicola
We said: Italy 4-0 Malta
Even with one eye on the impending trip to Wembley and a ravaged, Immobile-less attack, Italy should not run into many obstacles en route to a comfortable victory at the Stadio San Nicola.
The absence Teuma in particular will hamper Malta's chances of breaking their 30-year goalless streak against the reigning European champions, and a sixth defeat from six surely awaits the Reds, as Italy send out a early warning to England ahead of next week's highly-anticipated battle.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 63.33%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Malta had a probability of 13.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.84%) and 2-1 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.43%), while for a Malta win it was 0-1 (6.05%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 4-0 win for Italy in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Italy.
| Result |
| Italy | Draw | Malta |
63.33% ( 3.53) | 23.06% ( -1.09) | 13.6% ( -2.44) |
| Both teams to score 39.25% ( -2.35) |
