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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 85.06%. A draw had a probability of 10.4% and a win for FC Twente had a probability of 4.57%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (12.52%) and 4-0 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.93%), while for a FC Twente win it was 0-1 (1.66%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
Result | ||
Ajax | Draw | FC Twente |
85.06% | 10.38% | 4.57% |
Both teams to score 41.91% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
69.01% | 31% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
47.6% | 52.4% |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
94.91% | 5.09% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
79.75% | 20.26% |
FC Twente Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
44.16% | 55.85% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
11.62% | 88.38% |
Score Analysis |
Ajax | Draw | FC Twente |
2-0 @ 12.61% 3-0 @ 12.52% 4-0 @ 9.33% 1-0 @ 8.47% 2-1 @ 7.35% 3-1 @ 7.3% 5-0 @ 5.56% 4-1 @ 5.43% 5-1 @ 3.24% 6-0 @ 2.76% 3-2 @ 2.13% 6-1 @ 1.61% 4-2 @ 1.58% 7-0 @ 1.17% 5-2 @ 0.94% Other @ 3.06% Total : 85.05% | 1-1 @ 4.93% 0-0 @ 2.84% 2-2 @ 2.14% Other @ 0.46% Total : 10.38% | 0-1 @ 1.66% 1-2 @ 1.44% Other @ 1.48% Total : 4.57% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 32 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 107 | 19 | 88 | 87 |
2 | Feyenoord | 32 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 85 | 24 | 61 | 78 |
3 | FC Twente | 32 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 60 | 33 | 27 | 63 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 64 | 36 | 28 | 61 |
5 | Ajax | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 69 | 59 | 10 | 52 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 62 | 47 | 15 | 50 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 32 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 46 | 43 | 3 | 49 |
8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 43 |
9 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 48 | 47 | 1 | 43 |
10 | Heerenveen | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 51 | 65 | -14 | 37 |
11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 36 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 43 | 64 | -21 | 35 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 32 | 9 | 5 | 18 | 41 | 70 | -29 | 32 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 36 | 52 | -16 | 28 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 46 | 69 | -23 | 26 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 32 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 31 | 79 | -48 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 25 | 71 | -46 | 2 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |