MX23RW : Thursday, May 9 14:13:15| >> :600:2740565:2740565:
Derby logo
EFL Trophy | Group Stage
Aug 30, 2022 at 7pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Grimsby Town

Derby
3 - 1
Grimsby Town

Mendez-Laing (6'), Sibley (42'), Bird (45')
Bird (58')
FT(HT: 3-0)
Kiernan (88')
Cropper (60')
Coverage of the EFL Trophy Group Stage clash between Derby County and Grimsby Town.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

Last Six:
Last Game: Derby 2-1 Peterborough
Saturday, August 27 at 3pm in League One

Grimsby Town

Last Six:
Last Game: Walsall 1-2 Grimsby Town
Saturday, August 27 at 3pm in League Two

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 41.73%. A win for Grimsby Town had a probability of 32.8% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.85%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest Grimsby Town win was 0-1 (8.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.06%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby CountyDrawGrimsby Town
41.73% (1.502 1.5) 25.48% (0.713 0.71) 32.8% (-2.213 -2.21)
Both teams to score 55.33% (-3.051 -3.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.53% (-3.708 -3.71)48.47% (3.71 3.71)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.4% (-3.478 -3.48)70.6% (3.479 3.48)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.91% (-0.878 -0.88)23.09% (0.88 0.88)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.07% (-1.306 -1.31)56.93% (1.308 1.31)
Grimsby Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.94% (-3.109 -3.11)28.06% (3.11 3.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.28% (-4.129 -4.13)63.72% (4.129 4.13)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 41.73%
    Grimsby Town 32.8%
    Draw 25.47%
Derby CountyDrawGrimsby Town
1-0 @ 9.5% (1.159 1.16)
2-1 @ 8.85% (0.137 0.14)
2-0 @ 6.96% (0.688 0.69)
3-1 @ 4.32% (-0.045 -0.04)
3-0 @ 3.4% (0.254 0.25)
3-2 @ 2.75% (-0.285 -0.29)
4-1 @ 1.58% (-0.059 -0.06)
4-0 @ 1.25% (0.063 0.06)
4-2 @ 1.01% (-0.134 -0.13)
Other @ 2.11%
Total : 41.73%
1-1 @ 12.06% (0.49 0.49)
0-0 @ 6.48% (0.937 0.94)
2-2 @ 5.62% (-0.424 -0.42)
3-3 @ 1.16% (-0.24 -0.24)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 25.47%
0-1 @ 8.23% (0.54 0.54)
1-2 @ 7.67% (-0.366 -0.37)
0-2 @ 5.23% (-0.108 -0.11)
1-3 @ 3.25% (-0.47 -0.47)
2-3 @ 2.38% (-0.416 -0.42)
0-3 @ 2.22% (-0.255 -0.26)
1-4 @ 1.03% (-0.258 -0.26)
Other @ 2.79%
Total : 32.8%

Head to Head
Aug 22, 2017 7.45pm
Grimsby Town
0-1
Derby

Berrett (28'), Davies (55')
Davies (63')
Vydra (53' pen.)
Lawrence (38'), Pearce (47'), Bryson (69')
Aug 9, 2016 7.45pm
Derby
1-0
Grimsby Town
Keogh (60')
Pearce (25')
Jul 11, 2015 3pm
Grimsby Town
2-1
Derby
Amond (25'), Clay (28')
Russell (48')
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