MX23RW : Thursday, May 2 22:21:33| >> :600:2686083:2686083:
DFB-Pokal | Round of 16
Dec 5, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Waldstadion Homburg

FC 08 Homburg
1 - 4
St Pauli

Mendler (28')
Eisele (86')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Wahl (24'), Saad (64'), Hartel (69'), Eggestein (73')
Smith (27'), Ritzka (42'), Saad (88')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's DFB-Pokal clash between FC 08 Homburg and St Pauli, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

FC 08 Homburg

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Last Game: FC 08 Homburg 2-1 Greuther Furth
Tuesday, October 31 at 5pm in DFB-Pokal
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

St Pauli

All competitions
DFB-Pokal
Last Game: St Pauli 2-2 Hamburger SV
Friday, December 1 at 5.30pm in 2.Bundesliga

We said: FC 08 Homburg 1-2 St Pauli

 Homburg have already shown this season that they have the players capable of troubling sides in the top two divisions. As a result, we expect the fourth-tier outfit to put up another strong showing, but we believe that St Pauli's extra quality will be pivotal in the end, which is why we think that they will do enough to squeeze through to the quarter-finals. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 75.34%. A draw had a probability of 14.7% and a win for FC 08 Homburg had a probability of 9.93%.

The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (9.04%) and 1-2 (8.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.69%), while for a FC 08 Homburg win it was 2-1 (2.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.

Result
FC 08 HomburgDrawSt Pauli
9.93% (0.010999999999999 0.01) 14.72% (0.032 0.03) 75.34% (-0.045000000000002 -0.05)
Both teams to score 54.92% (-0.102 -0.1)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
69.31% (-0.14099999999999 -0.14)30.69% (0.139 0.14)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
47.98% (-0.169 -0.17)52.01% (0.166 0.17)
FC 08 Homburg Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
58.93% (-0.082999999999998 -0.08)41.07% (0.082000000000001 0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.38% (-0.076999999999998 -0.08)77.61% (0.073999999999998 0.07)
St Pauli Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
93.19% (-0.040999999999997 -0.04)6.81% (0.039000000000001 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
74.89% (-0.107 -0.11)25.1% (0.105 0.11)
Score Analysis
    FC 08 Homburg 9.93%
    St Pauli 75.34%
    Draw 14.72%
FC 08 HomburgDrawSt Pauli
2-1 @ 2.98% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-0 @ 2.49% (0.014 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.19% (-0.004 -0)
2-0 @ 1.11% (0.0029999999999999 0)
Other @ 2.18%
Total : 9.93%
1-1 @ 6.69% (0.023000000000001 0.02)
2-2 @ 4% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-0 @ 2.8% (0.021 0.02)
3-3 @ 1.06% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 14.72%
0-2 @ 10.09% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
0-3 @ 9.04% (0.011999999999999 0.01)
1-2 @ 8.98% (0.011000000000001 0.01)
1-3 @ 8.05% (-0.0070000000000014 -0.01)
0-1 @ 7.51% (0.042 0.04)
0-4 @ 6.07% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
1-4 @ 5.41% (-0.016 -0.02)
2-3 @ 3.58% (-0.012 -0.01)
0-5 @ 3.26% (-0.01 -0.01)
1-5 @ 2.9% (-0.015 -0.02)
2-4 @ 2.41% (-0.013 -0.01)
0-6 @ 1.46% (-0.008 -0.01)
1-6 @ 1.3% (-0.0090000000000001 -0.01)
2-5 @ 1.29% (-0.01 -0.01)
Other @ 3.98%
Total : 75.34%

How you voted: FC 08 Homburg vs St Pauli

FC 08 Homburg
13.9%
Draw
8.3%
St Pauli
77.8%
36
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