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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Watford win with a probability of 35.95%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 35.09% and a draw had a probability of 29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Watford win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.49%) and 0-2 (6.79%). The likeliest Derby County win was 1-0 (11.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.37%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Watford in this match.
Result | ||
Derby County | Draw | Watford |
35.09% | 28.96% | 35.95% |
Both teams to score 44.98% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
38.31% | 61.69% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
18.49% | 81.51% |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.79% | 33.21% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.18% | 69.82% |
Watford Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.35% | 32.65% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.81% | 69.2% |
Score Analysis |
Derby County | Draw | Watford |
1-0 @ 11.95% 2-1 @ 7.37% 2-0 @ 6.59% 3-1 @ 2.71% 3-0 @ 2.42% 3-2 @ 1.52% Other @ 2.53% Total : 35.09% | 1-1 @ 13.37% 0-0 @ 10.84% 2-2 @ 4.13% Other @ 0.61% Total : 28.95% | 0-1 @ 12.13% 1-2 @ 7.49% 0-2 @ 6.79% 1-3 @ 2.79% 0-3 @ 2.54% 2-3 @ 1.54% Other @ 2.66% Total : 35.94% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Leicester CityLeicester | 44 | 30 | 4 | 10 | 86 | 39 | 47 | 94 |
2 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 44 | 27 | 9 | 8 | 80 | 37 | 43 | 90 |
3 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 43 | 26 | 11 | 6 | 85 | 53 | 32 | 89 |
4 | Southampton | 44 | 25 | 9 | 10 | 85 | 61 | 24 | 84 |
5 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 44 | 20 | 12 | 12 | 67 | 44 | 23 | 72 |
6 | Norwich CityNorwich | 44 | 21 | 9 | 14 | 77 | 61 | 16 | 72 |
7 | Hull City | 44 | 19 | 12 | 13 | 65 | 56 | 9 | 69 |
8 | Coventry CityCoventry | 43 | 17 | 12 | 14 | 68 | 55 | 13 | 63 |
9 | Middlesbrough | 44 | 18 | 9 | 17 | 64 | 60 | 4 | 63 |
10 | Preston North EndPreston | 44 | 18 | 9 | 17 | 56 | 61 | -5 | 63 |
11 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 44 | 19 | 5 | 20 | 50 | 61 | -11 | 62 |
12 | Bristol City | 44 | 16 | 11 | 17 | 51 | 47 | 4 | 59 |
13 | Sunderland | 44 | 16 | 8 | 20 | 52 | 51 | 1 | 56 |
14 | Swansea CitySwansea | 44 | 15 | 11 | 18 | 57 | 62 | -5 | 56 |
15 | Watford | 44 | 12 | 17 | 15 | 59 | 58 | 1 | 53 |
16 | Millwall | 44 | 14 | 11 | 19 | 43 | 55 | -12 | 53 |
17 | Stoke CityStoke | 44 | 13 | 11 | 20 | 44 | 60 | -16 | 50 |
18 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 44 | 13 | 11 | 20 | 41 | 57 | -16 | 50 |
19 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 44 | 13 | 10 | 21 | 58 | 74 | -16 | 49 |
20 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 44 | 12 | 12 | 20 | 58 | 69 | -11 | 48 |
21 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 44 | 13 | 8 | 23 | 39 | 68 | -29 | 47 |
22 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 44 | 12 | 10 | 22 | 48 | 64 | -16 | 46 |
23 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 44 | 9 | 17 | 18 | 47 | 74 | -27 | 44 |
R | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 44 | 4 | 12 | 28 | 32 | 85 | -53 | 24 |
> Championship Full Table |