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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 72.2%. A draw had a probability of 15.8% and a win for Bayer Leverkusen had a probability of 11.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.2%) and 3-0 (8.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.03%), while for a Bayer Leverkusen win it was 1-2 (3.48%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.
Result | ||
Bayern Munich | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
72.2% ( 0.06) | 15.83% ( -0.03) | 11.97% ( -0.03) |
Both teams to score 58.24% ( 0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
69.86% ( 0.06) | 30.14% ( -0.06) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
48.64% ( 0.07) | 51.36% ( -0.08) |
Bayern Munich Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
92.71% ( 0.03) | 7.29% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
73.61% ( 0.07) | 26.39% ( -0.07) |
Bayer Leverkusen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.82% ( -0) | 37.18% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.03% ( -0) | 73.97% |
Score Analysis |
Bayern Munich | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
2-0 @ 9.3% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.2% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 8.11% ( 0) 3-1 @ 8.03% ( 0) 1-0 @ 7.1% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 5.31% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 5.25% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.97% ( 0) 5-0 @ 2.78% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 2.75% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 2.6% ( 0) 5-2 @ 1.36% ( 0) 6-0 @ 1.21% ( 0.01) 6-1 @ 1.2% ( 0.01) Other @ 4.04% Total : 72.2% | 1-1 @ 7.03% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.55% ( -0) 0-0 @ 2.71% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.31% Other @ 0.24% Total : 15.83% | 1-2 @ 3.48% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 2.68% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.5% ( -0) 0-2 @ 1.33% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.15% ( -0) Other @ 1.83% Total : 11.97% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 32 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 82 | 23 | 59 | 84 |
2 | Bayern MunichBayern | 32 | 22 | 3 | 7 | 90 | 41 | 49 | 69 |
3 | Stuttgart | 32 | 21 | 4 | 7 | 73 | 39 | 34 | 67 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 32 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 74 | 36 | 38 | 63 |
5 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 32 | 17 | 9 | 6 | 64 | 40 | 24 | 60 |
6 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 32 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 48 | 47 | 1 | 45 |
7 | Freiburg | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 43 | 55 | -12 | 41 |
8 | Hoffenheim | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 56 | 64 | -8 | 40 |
9 | Augsburg | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 49 | 57 | -8 | 39 |
10 | Heidenheim | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 45 | 53 | -8 | 38 |
11 | Werder Bremen | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 52 | -9 | 38 |
12 | Wolfsburg | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 37 |
13 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 32 | 7 | 12 | 13 | 55 | 62 | -7 | 33 |
14 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 32 | 7 | 12 | 13 | 41 | 65 | -24 | 33 |
15 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 32 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 29 | 54 | -25 | 30 |
16 | Mainz 05Mainz | 32 | 5 | 14 | 13 | 33 | 50 | -17 | 29 |
17 | FC Koln | 32 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 24 | 54 | -30 | 24 |
R | SV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt | 32 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 30 | 76 | -46 | 17 |
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