Lanus have made a habit out of drawing on their travels, sharing the spoils in three of their last four away games, and with both sides very evenly-matched, we are expecting them to play out a closely-contested draw this weekend.
That result would suit third-placed San Lorenzo to the ground, but they face a very tough test at home against league-leaders River Plate, meaning the door may be open for Defensa y Justicia or Lanus to close the gap.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 39.27%. A win for Lanus had a probability of 31.15% and a draw had a probability of 29.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.79%) and 2-1 (7.67%). The likeliest Lanus win was 0-1 (11.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
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0.13) 
